UK General Election 2024 (or 25) - Trading ONLY thread

[Euler]

Conservatives could lose a huge number of seats in the Election. SNP will leak seats to Labour and Galloway will sure put the cat amongst the pigeons. It's going to be an interesting Election.

Turnover and seat numbers, will probably be interesting markets. Outright not so much I guess?

[Derek27]

When I was a teenager I used to set fire to park benches! Nothing has changed, firlandsfarm. There's a point in your life when you become and act responsible and that age varies from person to person.

That reads like you still set fire to them occasionally - just got more responsible in how you do it.

Jeremy Hunt just reminded me of that post. He's aiming to cut taxes while the NHS is on its knees and half the country rely on a pair of pliers if they need teeth pulled out. He's just going to do it in a responsible manner.

[henbet22]

Things would be more straightforward if we could take Galloway, and the Workers’ Party of Britain (WPB) that he leads, at face value. They claim to be a leftwing outfit that won Rochdale on a surge of pro-Palestinian sentiment in the wake of Israel’s brutal assault on Gaza. But the truth is murkier. During this campaign, Galloway’s team sent out more than one set of correspondence. One, addressed to Muslims in the constituency, urged voters to “use your vote to send Keir Starmer and the Labour party a message – stop supporting genocide, stop supporting Israeli aggression, and stand with Palestine”.

His other election address, targeting a different demographic, tells another story. It trumpets Galloway’s record of backing Brexit, opposing Scottish independence and supporting family values. A whole paragraph is dedicated to outlining his opposition to transgender rights and his conviction that “God creates everything in pairs”. “I believe in law and order,” the letter reads. “There will be no grooming gangs in Rochdale. Even if I have to arrest them myself.” It ends with a deliberate nod to Donald Trump, promising to “make Rochdale great again”. Alienated white voters were a key part of Galloway’s winning coalition.

[sionascaig]

Turnover and seat numbers, will probably be interesting markets. Outright not so much I guess?

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html

I liked this view as at least attempts to give a range given uncertainty within polls.

"In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won."

[greenmark]

Barring something from left field it looks a slam dunk for a Labour majority. So the interest must be in one of the other markets.
"when" is interesting but only £199k at present.
Autumn being favourite which seems right. A May election would seem unlikely, too much twaddle flying about.
But tomorrow's budget could change things. Currently 3.75 for 2nd quarter 1.49 for 3rd.

EDIT: Just over the day now 4.5 and 1.39 but still just 200k. I'm baffled by that. How can 1k move the prices so far?

[Derek27]

Not sure if there was any tongue-in-cheek, but Wes Streeting seems confident the election will be on 2nd of May. Hope he's got his money on.

Screenshot 2024-03-05 193131.png

[greenmark]

Birmingham City Council signs off 'devastating' cuts.

That could wipe out Labour in Brum. Who thinks the average person will blame central govt when slapped with a 21% increase over 2 years on their council bill?

[Archery1969]

What the country needs is multiple independents or bring in proportional representation.

But that won’t happen and therefore I fear the same old political arguments will carry on.

Curious that you care so much about a country you are leaving.
I don't blame you for leaving. Jeez, leaving Chesterfield UK for one of the biggest untouched wildernesses would be mind boggling.
To me Canada is Scottish Highlands, North Wales, Lake District times 10. I have serious envy.

I still care about the UK as my nephews will be here. But hopefully they will come visit when abit older during summer holidays etc.

[Dublin_Flyer]

Barring something from left field it looks a slam dunk for a Labour majority. So the interest must be in one of the other markets.
"when" is interesting but only £199k at present.
Autumn being favourite which seems right. A May election would seem unlikely, too much twaddle flying about.
But tomorrow's budget could change things. Currently 3.75 for 2nd quarter 1.49 for 3rd.

EDIT: Just over the day now 4.5 and 1.39 but still just 200k. I'm baffled by that. How can 1k move the prices so far?

Bear in mind there's the Euros this year so mid June-mid July is unlikely

I asked my good friend ChatGPT when were the UK General Elections in the last 50 years?

Here are the dates of the UK General Elections held in the last 50 years:

June 18, 1970
February 28, 1974 (First General Election)
October 10, 1974 (Second General Election)
May 3, 1979
June 9, 1983
June 11, 1987
April 9, 1992
May 1, 1997
June 7, 2001
May 5, 2005
May 6, 2010
May 7, 2015
June 8, 2017
December 12, 2019

3rd Q would definitely be an outlier so.
I checked was there any correlation between England playing in a major tournament and an election and the only ones were 1966 (Election was before the tournament, England reached final, 2-2 draw, VAR still involved ) and 2010 (Election before tournament, England v Germans again, no VAR)

The frequency of World Cup and Euro years being even numbers and UK General Election years being odd numbers recently, removes any sentiment of the feel-good factor that the government in charge might try to take advantage of to get people to vote for more of the same.

So May Bank Hol weekend or 1st weekend in June look possibles to me. With the amount of recall elections in recent months, I can't see the Government holding out through the long summer break hoping nobodys fuck-ups come to light, hemorrhaging more votes as they lose more seats. Although the government and advisors do seem to operate in an alternate reality.....so who knows!

[Crazyskier]

I'll kick it off with the Rochdale by-election.

Labour imploded on an election they should have won given they were priced at 1.02.

I think the key for me here was how well the independent candidate did. That hints at a lot of unhappy voters in general.

Or the fact that he had a team going door-to-door and mosque-to-mosque to persuade all of the local Muslims to postal vote for him on a single issue - the Palestinian conflict. Just check the percentage of postal votes that he had - the biggest in history, by far!

CS

[Dublin_Flyer]

CS, read 1st post. You're here as long as I am, if not longer. Ski better than that bro

[sionascaig]

Bear in mind there's the Euros this year so mid June-mid July is unlikely

I asked my good friend ChatGPT when were the UK General Elections in the last 50 years?

Here are the dates of the UK General Elections held in the last 50 years:

June 18, 1970
February 28, 1974 (First General Election)
October 10, 1974 (Second General Election)
May 3, 1979
June 9, 1983
June 11, 1987
April 9, 1992
May 1, 1997
June 7, 2001
May 5, 2005
May 6, 2010
May 7, 2015
June 8, 2017
December 12, 2019

3rd Q would definitely be an outlier so.
I checked was there any correlation between England playing in a major tournament and an election and the only ones were 1966 (Election was before the tournament, England reached final, 2-2 draw, VAR still involved ) and 2010 (Election before tournament, England v Germans again, no VAR)

The frequency of World Cup and Euro years being even numbers and UK General Election years being odd numbers recently, removes any sentiment of the feel-good factor that the government in charge might try to take advantage of to get people to vote for more of the same.

So May Bank Hol weekend or 1st weekend in June look possibles to me. With the amount of recall elections in recent months, I can't see the Government holding out through the long summer break hoping nobodys fuck-ups come to light, hemorrhaging more votes as they lose more seats. Although the government and advisors do seem to operate in an alternate reality.....so who knows!

Excellent, piece of analysis D... Made me smile 1st thing on a Sun morning. Ty )

[greenmark]

Rochdale IMO is irrelevent. Galloway has achieved his objective.
Get back into the Commons and wind up the incumbent govt for his own publicity.
He has nothing other than being an irritant.
But, hey that's the beauty of democracy. A majority of people in Rochdale were convinced he was the best candidate. I would dispute that, but he is now their MP.
Will that affect the UK GE result. IMO Not a chance!

[jamesedwards]

Rochdale IMO is irrelevent. Galloway has achieved his objective.
Get back into the Commons and wind up the incumbent govt for his own publicity.
He has nothing other than being an irritant.
But, hey that's the beauty of democracy. A majority of people in Rochdale were convinced he was the best candidate. I would dispute that, but he is now their MP.
Will that affect the UK GE result. IMO Not a chance!

Absolutely. Only won because the Labour candidate was expelled before the election and Labour voters only had the independent and George Galloway to vote for..

[Derek27]

30p-Lee switches to Reform, becoming their only MP.