Today's Horse Racing

[LinusP]

I wasn't suggesting I didn't believe him. I was just saying, that if he's a PC payer, then the numbers would have to be worthwhile to bother arbing, and the bookies have systems in place to immediately flag those arbers.

Sorry i might have misread yourt reply slightly and im sorry to appear negative in one of my first posts but as a long time lurker on here I really enjoy reading 90% of the posts each day but seeing Derek continually post about his premium charge for the umteenth time in the last few weeks and in between how he trades illiquid markets with small stakes doesn't add up to me.
I guess if it makes him feel better to pretend to be a PC payer thats up to him, im sure im not the only one to see through him and expect the real racing pros who frequent the forum daily and keep track of most comments could certainly tell he's not in the pc catagory.

Anyway now i've joined up i hope to get involved with some more postive posts and discussion with members of the forum in the coming weeks

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=15940&p=149030#p149030

[cappy77]

I wasn't suggesting I didn't believe him. I was just saying, that if he's a PC payer, then the numbers would have to be worthwhile to bother arbing, and the bookies have systems in place to immediately flag those arbers.

Sorry i might have misread yourt reply slightly and im sorry to appear negative in one of my first posts but as a long time lurker on here I really enjoy reading 90% of the posts each day but seeing Derek continually post about his premium charge for the umteenth time in the last few weeks and in between how he trades illiquid markets with small stakes doesn't add up to me.
I guess if it makes him feel better to pretend to be a PC payer thats up to him, im sure im not the only one to see through him and expect the real racing pros who frequent the forum daily and keep track of most comments could certainly tell he's not in the pc catagory.

Anyway now i've joined up i hope to get involved with some more postive posts and discussion with members of the forum in the coming weeks

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=15940&p=149030#p149030

I must have missed that one

[Gauss]

easiest trade all week

MrktR 8th Nov - 12.55 2m Juv Hrd.png

[Dallas]

I'm not yet fully into winter mode and keep getting caught out by these early starts

[Dallas]

Scalpers paradise on the fav's so far today

I just want one of them to move during the final 5 mins to finish off an example!

[Derek27]

Lost a few hundred quid on Betfair tonight following a string of successful arbs - should make my premium portal healthy.

Now I'm desperately trying to lose some money back to the bookie in case it upsets them.

If your paying PC, I'm surprised you've even managed to hang on to some bookmakers accounts!!

I had 14 once, I'm now down to 2. I've stopped arbing, as I need those accounts in emergencies

Im with you Letiss especially when 2 weeks ago Derek27 posted he had 1 bookie account left but now is down to 2 Hmmmmm

I'm glad to have you to proofread all my posts. I hope you've started from the very beginning.

Did it not even occur to you that I could have opened another account???

If you read my post carefully you'd notice I actually said I'm down to 2 but can't arb with Ladbrokes, which means I have 1 that I can bet with!

[Derek27]

I was just saying, that if he's a PC payer, then the numbers would have to be worthwhile to bother arbing, and the bookies have systems in place to immediately flag those arbers.

The numbers certainly don't need to be worth much, any money you make from arbing is free!

[Derek27]

I wasn't suggesting I didn't believe him. I was just saying, that if he's a PC payer, then the numbers would have to be worthwhile to bother arbing, and the bookies have systems in place to immediately flag those arbers.

Sorry i might have misread yourt reply slightly and im sorry to appear negative in one of my first posts but as a long time lurker on here I really enjoy reading 90% of the posts each day but seeing Derek continually post about his premium charge for the umteenth time in the last few weeks and in between how he trades illiquid markets with small stakes doesn't add up to me.
I guess if it makes him feel better to pretend to be a PC payer thats up to him, im sure im not the only one to see through him and expect the real racing pros who frequent the forum daily and keep track of most comments could certainly tell he's not in the pc catagory.

Anyway now i've joined up i hope to get involved with some more postive posts and discussion with members of the forum in the coming weeks

You're just demonstrating how little you know about the premium charge cappy. PC isn't based on how much you win but your profit/loss ratio. Basically, if you lose less then £75 for every £100 you win (depending on discount rate) you become liable to pay it once your £1000 allowance is used up regardless of how much you trade.

Every £100 that you lose on Betfair through arbing means you're about £20 better off if you're a 20% payer, and betting is all about maximising profits.

I'm sorry if I sound boastful by talking about PC but I just assumed many traders on here are paying it (some are even paying 40, 50 & 60%) and it's very much the norm.

Anyway, welcome to the forum cappy. I'm honoured that your first post is about me.

[spreadbetting]

Every £100 that you lose on Betfair through arbing means you're about £20 better off if you're a 20% payer, and betting is all about maximising profits.

Have you been on one of the aussie traders courses on how to ensure only the losing part of the arb is placed on Betfair, Derek?

[wilf]

Nice straightforward lay there on Heartasia, I love those trades. I missed most of it though messing with a bot

[Derek27]

Every £100 that you lose on Betfair through arbing means you're about £20 better off if you're a 20% payer, and betting is all about maximising profits.

Have you been on one of the aussie traders courses on how to ensure only the losing part of the arb is placed on Betfair, Derek?

This is a question you've asked me previously SB, to which I gave a comprehensive answer, so here we go again.

If you back a horse at 33/1 with a bookie and lay it on the exchange at 5.0, it goes without saying the back bet is value, but would you be confident that the lay bet is value?

Take a look at the graphic below. William Hill opened the favourite at 33/1, quickly knocked it down to 3/1, and then 2/1. I'd like to say the horse bolted up like a 1/3 favourite - unfortunately I was too late to get on and didn't watch the race (it did win), but what I can say is that I've won thousands with bookies and lost thousands with Betfair through arbing, saving me hundreds in PC. If I did manage to get on, I reckon at the time I might have got £20 on for a roughly £600 free bet, plus a £15 premium charge refund. Not bad for a few mouse clicks.

Arbing US racing often involves backing a horse at 10.0 and laying it at 8.0, when it may really have a 4.0 chance and get backed down there. But you know in low liquidity markets you can't have a wait and see policy - you have to get out while there's an opportunity.

WH madness.PNG

[Derek27]

I wasn't suggesting I didn't believe him. I was just saying, that if he's a PC payer, then the numbers would have to be worthwhile to bother arbing, and the bookies have systems in place to immediately flag those arbers.

Sorry i might have misread yourt reply slightly and im sorry to appear negative in one of my first posts but as a long time lurker on here I really enjoy reading 90% of the posts each day but seeing Derek continually post about his premium charge for the umteenth time in the last few weeks and in between how he trades illiquid markets with small stakes doesn't add up to me.
I guess if it makes him feel better to pretend to be a PC payer thats up to him, im sure im not the only one to see through him and expect the real racing pros who frequent the forum daily and keep track of most comments could certainly tell he's not in the pc catagory.

Anyway now i've joined up i hope to get involved with some more postive posts and discussion with members of the forum in the coming weeks

It was kind of you to apologise to LeTiss for misunderstanding him and apologise again to him for being negative - how polite you are.

Whatever people on this forum think of me and my posts, I doubt anyone would argue that I haven't taken a lot of time and trouble to help other members (who could forget our talented little champion), and many people have been grateful. In fact, my very first post to this forum was to give somebody information and I probably signed up just to do that. I know I've got into a lot of scraps on here but even I wouldn't start a fight with my first post!

For you to join this forum and in your first post make an innuendo, and in your second make a confident and outrageous allegation about my honesty regarding being a PC payer, without even understanding the PC criteria, says far more about you than me. Did you actually do the maths and work out how much your account needs to be in profit to be liable for PC, before deciding I don't qualify for your perceived "pc catagory [Sic]"?

Your assumption that people who trade illiquid markets can't make the money you thought was required to pay PC demonstrates your lack of business sense (and probably a lack of experience or success in trading US markets). Tesco sells TV sets - but they also sell bags of crisps, and those crisp sales will amount to something meaningful.

My advice to you is that if somebody makes statements that are not consistent with your expectations, before questioning their honesty you should question how accurate your expectations are, or indeed, whether you actually understand the subject being discussed!

I would just add that if you want to join a forum to get involved in more positive discussions with (presumably other) members of this forum, this may not have been the best way to introduce yourself to the forum, because I'm a member of the forum as well!

You said you've been a long time lurker on here. Now that you've joined the forum you've posted 4 times, 3 of those posts attacking me. Please don't forget that I'm entitled to read and respond to any of your posts!

(Fuck knows how many other lurkers there are out there that's got it in for me!)

[spreadbetting]

Thanks for the arbing lesson , Derek, I wasn't aware bookies were happy to continue to accommodate people at 33's when it's 5's on the exchange, every day's a school day I guess. Back in my day they used to limit your account just for beating SP regardless of whether you were winning or not.

[Derek27]

Thanks for the arbing lesson , Derek, I wasn't aware bookies were happy to continue to accommodate people at 33's when it's 5's on the exchange, every day's a school day I guess. Back in my day they used to limit your account just for beating SP regardless of whether you were winning or not.

You learn a lot when you're on the job, as you put it, 24/7 , but it's not a question of whether bookies are happy to throw away money, but whether they actually do, intentionally or not!

It depends on the bookie, and perhaps more importantly, on the trader or trading team that are managing the prices.

From my experience, Bet365, Betfred and Totesport (the latter two, same company, same prices, but you can get restricted by one and open an account with the other!!) are the slowest. But sometimes, even when trading with the same bookie, they are sharp on some days and slow on others.

Did you ever look at US racing? I've never bothered arbing UK racing but as you can see from the graphic I posted, bookies and punters alike don't really have a clue what horses are worth until the last minute when the money comes. No idea how long the 33/1 was there but somebody must have been on it!

[cappy77]

I wasn't suggesting I didn't believe him. I was just saying, that if he's a PC payer, then the numbers would have to be worthwhile to bother arbing, and the bookies have systems in place to immediately flag those arbers.

Sorry i might have misread yourt reply slightly and im sorry to appear negative in one of my first posts but as a long time lurker on here I really enjoy reading 90% of the posts each day but seeing Derek continually post about his premium charge for the umteenth time in the last few weeks and in between how he trades illiquid markets with small stakes doesn't add up to me.
I guess if it makes him feel better to pretend to be a PC payer thats up to him, im sure im not the only one to see through him and expect the real racing pros who frequent the forum daily and keep track of most comments could certainly tell he's not in the pc catagory.

Anyway now i've joined up i hope to get involved with some more postive posts and discussion with members of the forum in the coming weeks

You're just demonstrating how little you know about the premium charge cappy. PC isn't based on how much you win but your profit/loss ratio. Basically, if you lose less then £75 for every £100 you win (depending on discount rate) you become liable to pay it once your £1000 allowance is used up regardless of how much you trade.

Every £100 that you lose on Betfair through arbing means you're about £20 better off if you're a 20% payer, and betting is all about maximising profits.

I'm sorry if I sound boastful by talking about PC but I just assumed many traders on here are paying it (some are even paying 40, 50 & 60%) and it's very much the norm.

Anyway, welcome to the forum cappy. I'm honoured that your first post is about me.

I dont have the time and nor do I want to take this thread off course by replying to all your messages but I do understand exactly how PC works and is calculated, and from the replys posted yesterday by some of the pro's on here my view they had the same train of thought were also right.

I'd like to get on with some afternoon trading now and something more productive so this will be my final word on the matter