I'm a bit...fed up, confused...whatever

[Scalping2go]

in reply to Ferru123 - A period is about 10 attempts to scalp. My win scalps are usually half those of my negative scalps. As I usualy win 80% and I have very tight stops, I invest 20% of my capital per scalp. I have only one scalp open at any stage and I scalp only on betting active horses - fav or second fav. For added risk minimisation I usually open the scalp with a bet rather than a lay.

[mugsgame]

in reply to Ferru123 - A period is about 10 attempts to scalp. My win scalps are usually half those of my negative scalps. As I usualy win 80% and I have very tight stops, I invest 20% of my capital per scalp. I have only one scalp open at any stage and I scalp only on betting active horses - fav or second fav. For added risk minimisation I usually open the scalp with a bet rather than a lay.

Risk minimisation by Backing first?
Tight Stops?
20% of your bank?
Exciting? rewarding?
Realise the Magic of 70? WTF does that mean?

Have you been reading some City trading book?

If you are trying to impress.......FAIL

[LeTiss]

The advice I gave a few in the past is to initially trade sports you enjoy, or sports you have great knowledge on.

I know jack shit about horse racing, I don't find it interesting at all. As a result, my trading on horses is very poor because I'm not really sure what I'm looking for, and this impacted upon my confidence when trading them

However, football/tennis/darts etc, I can look at a price and gauge whether that's value, or I can estimate where the drift will end

So, forget about mind boggling figures posted by Peter Webb etc....you will never be him, none of us will

Just ask yourself "what's my favourite sport?"
Go back to basics, it will all build from that base

[Iron]

Mugs, you confuse me.

I'm not sure whether you're still the caring, sharing happy guy of a few months ago, or if you've reverted to your original role of being the forum's Victor Meldrew!

Will the real Mugs please stand up?

Jeff

Realise the Magic of 70? WTF does that mean?

Have you been reading some City trading book?

If you are trying to impress.......FAIL

[mugsgame]

Mugs, you confuse me.

I'm not sure whether you're still the caring, sharing happy guy of a few months ago, or if you've reverted to your original role of being the forum's Victor Meldrew!

Will the real Mugs please stand up?

Jeff

Realise the Magic of 70? WTF does that mean?

Have you been reading some City trading book?

If you are trying to impress.......FAIL

Jeff, Just responding to the post

[Iron]

Writing 'WTF does that mean?' without a smiley might come across as mildly condescending, don't you think?

Jeff

[marko236]

One day i'll be so good at this that Peter Webb will be my Butler

[Scalping2go]

Scalping is fun and can be profitable. Over the next few days I will be adding comments to tell how I attempt to win. However we need a preamble. I am in Australia therefore all my discussion will be in $$ and taken from the Australian races. Last Saturday we had over 100 races, Sunday we had 60, Monday we will have 30, Tuesday 40, Wednesday 60, Thursday 40 and Friday 30. In a week Australia has over 350 races, however, some races have insufficient turnover to scalp effectively. To select a suitable race to scalp I require a reasonable turnover (this would not be a problem with UK races ) and the first three favourites having a combined chance of winning greater than 50%. .

To achieve my aim of $30 per hour profit (tax free naturally), and as my loss scalps are twice the amount of my winning scalps I need to undertake about 18 $300 1 tick scalps per hour.

Having determined the races and the amount bet/lay scalp the question is how to select the horse(s). Next email. Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated.

It is worth noting I manually undertake the lays

[Iron]

Scalping is fun and can be profitable.

How do you define scalping?

Some people define scalping as trying to grab a few ticks in a trending market, others strictly as one tick scalping (a very different beast).

Jeff

[Naffman]

Good luck scalping the Aussie markets on Mondays and Tuesdays! Do you do the trots or something because there are only 16 races tomorrow and if you are doing all races everyday, I think you would've hit the turnover charge by the end of Wednesday.

[Scalping2go]

Answering two question in one -- Scalping is 1 tick BUT due to the speed of the market I average just under 1.5 ticks. To the other question I scalp trots only if I am desperate. Monday is often a holiday in Australia which increases the average number of races

[Scalping2go]

Selection of scalping bets. Accepting the top 3 have a high combined chance of winning the race, the market is most active. If we take a race from The Sunshine Coast Queensland, at race time using the odds, the chance of one of the top 3 horse winning was 83% as it was at 4 minutes before the start time. BUT the odds during the last 4 minutes of the 1st fav had moved from2.4 to 2.6 ( drift), the 2nd fav from 4 to 3.8 and the 3rd fav from 6 to 5.5. Therefore to make the chance of winning about the same over the four minutes, the movement of the price of one horse MUST result in the opposite movement of at least one of the other horses under consideration

[mugsgame]

Selection of scalping bets. Accepting the top 3 have a high combined chance of winning the race, the market is most active. If we take a race from The Sunshine Coast Queensland, at race time using the odds, the chance of one of the top 3 horse winning was 83% as it was at 4 minutes before the start time. BUT the odds during the last 4 minutes of the 1st fav had moved from2.4 to 2.6 ( drift), the 2nd fav from 4 to 3.8 and the 3rd fav from 6 to 5.5. Therefore to make the chance of winning about the same over the four minutes, the movement of the price of one horse MUST result in the opposite movement of at least one of the other horses under consideration

This may be partly true if the book is 100% - Haven't seen that in any Aussie race 4 minutes before the off. Many struggle to get below 105% on the backside even 2 minutes out on a SATURDAY. The rest of the week is worse. - So with 5% plus of the book (and that's not even taking into account the movement of other runners, which is a mistake IMHO. A horse trading at 2.4 could move into 2.14 and have absolutely no effect or influence on the odds of any other runner.

The UK markets behave nothing like the Aussie markets.

I have a couple of initial questions.

How do you deal with market manipulation?

What's your exit point? ie how many ticks do you let it go before cutting your loss?

I am sure your intentions are honorable. But there are so many inexperienced traders/users. I worry they will fail to understand what is required.

Scalping has moved on since the days of Adam Todd (We love Adam Todds vids ) Anyone got any links?

[herbie]

adam todd vid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-sonABXM7E
crackin

[Iron]

'When you're making single ticks, you can't be taking 6 and 7 tick losses.'

He's not wrong!

Jeff

adam todd vid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-sonABXM7E
crackin