Football ratings

[xitian]

I have to say I'm with Jeff on this one.

I think people saying that the market is hyper efficient without qualifying that statement is confusing things. If markets truly are perfectly efficient in every way then there would be no way to profit consistently from them.

I think what Peter is saying when he says that the markets are hyper efficient with regards to the goal ratings is that if you were to bet on all games rated at 2.7, say, and make no further trades, you'd break even over many many bets.

As Peter points out, you might be able to profit from the volatility of the prices. To me that's just saying that the markets aren't efficient all the time, and you just have to take advantage of when they diverge. For example the goal rating might start at 2.7, and during the game the prices will imply a varying rating between 2.0 and 3.5, say. This might be seen because of events happening, or related markets (correct score, etc..) diverging away.

So I think it's the statement that "markets are perfectly efficient" that's not correct.

Another way of looking at it is saying that if you bet on all markets at their start price, yes, in the long term you will break even and that implies efficiency. However there are certainly people out there who can selectively bet on matches or horses and make a profit long term. That means the the markets were inefficient for the set that they had selected.

If a market were perfectly efficient it would know that Man Utd wins on Sat, the current back price would be non-existent and you could lay them for 1.01 (and there would be no price fluctuations). Until markets can predict the future like that there's going to be ways to profit from them.

[marko236]

Agree Xitian the markets aren't 100%, when i first seen a post saying the markets were hyper efficient i didn't belive it but they are very close.

[icarus121]

Spurs game was just suspended??

[Euler]

I think what Peter is saying when he says that the markets are hyper efficient with regards to the goal ratings is that if you were to bet on all games rated at 2.7, say, and make no further trades, you'd break even over many many bets.

As Peter points out, you might be able to profit from the volatility of the prices.

Correct

Can we not ruin this thread for people who want to read the ratings. Have a discussion by all means by start a new thread or something.

I don't do these things for fun. So take out of them what you will and if you can't see any value in it then that's fine, but it's pretty obvious I wouldn't do it if felt it was worthless.

[icarus121]

Good work Peter......guess that makes sense too everyone! Hope your not going to tell us now that Spurs was 3.30 or something

[Euler]

I meant to post up but got distracted by the thread trying to do the Tennis and Racing at the same time. So much to do but so little time to do it!

[Groovyelms]

I meant to post up but got distracted by the thread trying to do the Tennis and Racing at the same time. So much to do but so little time to do it!

Forum thanks to Peter.. look forward to the ratings going back up for the weekend...
cheers Groovy

[ebasson61]

I'm also happy these ratings are being put up. It doesn't take much imagination to see how they can be used for trading opportunities.

Those that can't see that should perhaps try bingo instead.

[Consty1]

The market is forecasting around 18 goals today. Matches ranked from most to least goals: -

3.37 - Man Utd vs. Swansea
2.90 - Arsenal vs. C Palace
2.87 - West Ham vs. Tottenham
2.59 - Leicester vs. Everton
2.54 - West Brom vs. Sunderland
2.40 - Stoke vs. Aston Villa
2.28 - QPR vs. Hull

Tremendous work there PW - only West Ham stopped a full house of correct predictions, and there were 2 red cards there which totally changes a match anyway

Excellent stuff

Right I'm going to bite. As someone who does this full time Le Tiss why are you putting so much emphasis on the tiniest of sample sizes?

[LeTiss]

I wasn't putting any emphasis on them at all, I was just congratulating PW on his ratings for these games, as every one bar West Ham proved correct

Peter isn't advising people to go and do 7Fold Accumulator with the bookies, he's just giving an idea where there are likely to be goals and therefore develop some trades around that

[Consty1]

Ok, I suppose I was just alarmed to see a level of significance taken over such a small group of games which in reality could have been miles off the ratings.

I'm not criticising the rating's btw, just that people need to think about long term results with them and that there's variance along the way that's all.

[LeTiss]

I'm assuming the reason he picks a small amount of matches is because these are the games with predicted highest liquidity. Therefore, these are the matches where having a trading strategy is most likely to pay off. I'm sure PW has ratings for Scottish League 2 games too, but it's not easy getting decent trades on Annan vs Elgin

[Euler]

(Opps, edited out the old ratings, will have to bring them back. Sorry thought I was working on the new ones!)

[mbailey1705]

Many thanks Peter

[icarus121]

Gracias !