That kind of backs up my earlier argument Peter - City and Liverpool haven't changed their managers, so their tactics and general approach to the game won't have changed a great dealEuler wrote:I realise the match has almost finished, but for the record
3.06 : Man City vs Liverpool
Football ratings
Hi this is aimed at Euler in particular, im wondering if you take account the effect of the streak? If we look at the current results in EPL we have,
home at 30%
DRAW at 35%
AWAY AT 35%
if we take the asumption that more goals get scored at home is it right to say that predictions for OVER 2.5 would be valid??
home at 30%
DRAW at 35%
AWAY AT 35%
if we take the asumption that more goals get scored at home is it right to say that predictions for OVER 2.5 would be valid??
Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 27 goals today - an average of 2.65 per match.
3.20 : Malmo FF vs. Red Bull Salzburg
3.18 : Leverkusen vs. FC Copenhagen
2.76 : Aston Villa vs. Leyton Orient
2.76 : Stoke vs. Portsmouth
2.62 : Burton vs. QPR
2.59 : Bradford vs. Leeds
2.58 : Arsenal vs. Besiktas
2.56 : Birmingham vs. Sunderland
2.48 : Ath Bilbao vs. Napoli
2.13 : Ludogorets vs. Steaua Bucharest
3.20 : Malmo FF vs. Red Bull Salzburg
3.18 : Leverkusen vs. FC Copenhagen
2.76 : Aston Villa vs. Leyton Orient
2.76 : Stoke vs. Portsmouth
2.62 : Burton vs. QPR
2.59 : Bradford vs. Leeds
2.58 : Arsenal vs. Besiktas
2.56 : Birmingham vs. Sunderland
2.48 : Ath Bilbao vs. Napoli
2.13 : Ludogorets vs. Steaua Bucharest
You look at long term historical results, current form and other minor factors but weight each according to historical importance. At the moment current form is sparse so you weight it less.burdo77 wrote:Hi this is aimed at Euler in particular, im wondering if you take account the effect of the streak? If we look at the current results in EPL we have
I don't follow.
Surely it's only logically not possible to have a long-term edge when trading if your opening and closing prices are accurate (putting aside market making by offering on both sides of the book, as it's not relevant here)?
In other words, if there is almost no edge from a backing/laying perspective, does it not follow logically that there is almost no edge from a trading perspective?
Jeff
Surely it's only logically not possible to have a long-term edge when trading if your opening and closing prices are accurate (putting aside market making by offering on both sides of the book, as it's not relevant here)?
In other words, if there is almost no edge from a backing/laying perspective, does it not follow logically that there is almost no edge from a trading perspective?
Jeff
Euler wrote:BTW there is almost no edge to using them to price a market as the markets are hyper efficient. But they are valid for trading strategies.
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evertonian
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:34 am
I think that's a bit harsh on Jeff. Surely the aim of the forum is to encourage people to ask questions and to learn from other users.
Jeff to be fair has a valid point in that if both prices are efficient in that you open and close without value on football then you fail to profit overall. Putting ratings up is good but as Jeff says, as they equate to what the market is saying then why not just back any Over 2.5 game that is below 2.0 ? The market, as has been said before is hyper-efficient. The fact is that not one person on the forum has actually put up a long term, and I stress long term winning strategy yet to profit from these strategies. Anyone can profit on one game on football, but long term will always be the key. So I'll start the ball rolling, pardon the pun !
On all ratings above 2.5 back the Over 2.5 goals. Now that's a one way system - how can we turn it into a trading system ?? Add a stop loss ?? What do traders do in play ? Reduce liabilites ? How can we reduce our liabilites ? This is a system I use a lot. Obviously I'm not going to give my exact opening prices and closing prices because they will vary, and also the way I reduce liabilites will vary too.
On all ratings below 2.5 Back the Under 2.5 goals ? How can we turn it into a trading system ? Cut our losses at the first goal ? Does it depend who scores the first goal, a home favourite or away favourite ? Cut our losses at the 2nd goal ? Can we use other markets to reduce our losses ?
Jeff to be fair has a valid point in that if both prices are efficient in that you open and close without value on football then you fail to profit overall. Putting ratings up is good but as Jeff says, as they equate to what the market is saying then why not just back any Over 2.5 game that is below 2.0 ? The market, as has been said before is hyper-efficient. The fact is that not one person on the forum has actually put up a long term, and I stress long term winning strategy yet to profit from these strategies. Anyone can profit on one game on football, but long term will always be the key. So I'll start the ball rolling, pardon the pun !
On all ratings above 2.5 back the Over 2.5 goals. Now that's a one way system - how can we turn it into a trading system ?? Add a stop loss ?? What do traders do in play ? Reduce liabilites ? How can we reduce our liabilites ? This is a system I use a lot. Obviously I'm not going to give my exact opening prices and closing prices because they will vary, and also the way I reduce liabilites will vary too.
On all ratings below 2.5 Back the Under 2.5 goals ? How can we turn it into a trading system ? Cut our losses at the first goal ? Does it depend who scores the first goal, a home favourite or away favourite ? Cut our losses at the 2nd goal ? Can we use other markets to reduce our losses ?
+1evertonian wrote:Putting ratings up is good but as Jeff says, as they equate to what the market is saying then why not just back any Over 2.5 game that is below 2.0 ? The market, as has been said before is hyper-efficient. The fact is that not one person on the forum has actually put up a long term, and I stress long term winning strategy yet to profit from these strategies. Anyone can profit on one game on football, but long term will always be the key.
Critical thinking like that is both uncommon and uncommonly refreshing in the forum.
Jeff
Peter is posting what will happen on average, lets say he say's there is going to be 2.7 goals in a game that doesn't mean there will be 2 or 3 goals in the game it could end up 5-0, i use the predictions and break them down into percentage chance of the outcome, with 2.7 i may use the following percentages 2 goals 35%, 3 goals 40% and that leaves 25% for all other scores.
What i would like to know is how close percentage wise Peter can predict the number of goals, that would really help.
What i would like to know is how close percentage wise Peter can predict the number of goals, that would really help.
I know.marko236 wrote:Peter is posting what will happen on average, lets say he say's there is going to be 2.7 goals in a game that doesn't mean there will be 2 or 3 goals in the game it could end up 5-0
How would knowing that help you make money?marko236 wrote:What i would like to know is how close percentage wise Peter can predict the number of goals, that would really help.
Peter has told us that the market is hyper-efficient.
Logically, you only make money from ratings if they aren't fully reflected in the odds, and thereby help you exploit a market inefficiency.
Jeff