Archive for November, 2013
Do teams perform better or worse after European games?
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European hangovers?
At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams’ following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy.
When removing games where teams faced a knock-out game in Europe for their next match (i.e. their domestic match was sandwiched between two European knockout matches) …
Conversation with a Journalist
Had breakfast with a journalist last week in London.
Here is the background to why we met up when I was in town. Over the years I’ve seen so many stories about people who lost a lot, I mean a real lot, gambling. Some lost through there own fault, but sometimes it was for completely nefarious means, by gambling with other people’s money. I wondered why the media doesn’t publish the opposing story, somebody that actually made something.
So I …
Europa league goal ratings
I like the Europa league, lots of matches split into two groupings. Though the liquidity can be a little light on certain matches. I like the range of matches though that are variable and often give you a chance to average out a strategy.
Tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on Spurs to see how they perform after there thrashing at the weekend. You would be surprised what clues you can pick up from watching how teams interact, perform and …
Champions league goal ratings
Goals ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray – 136%
Man City vs. Plzen – 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen – 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos – 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich – 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad – 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd – 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica – 98%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Champions league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening, projected variance to long term average: –
Porto vs. Austria Vienna – 125%
Dortmund vs. Napoli – 123%
Arsenal vs. Marseille – 122%
Ajax vs. Barcelona – 115%
Steaua Bucharest vs. Schalke – 104%
FC Basel vs. Chelsea – 101%
Zenit St Petersburg vs. Atl Madrid – 100%
Celtic vs. AC Milan – 95%
I’ve priced in 23 goals.
Another graph
I’m presenting another course today; if you are interested, I’ll be doing one more course on 9th December before I change the format in the new year. We still have a few places left on that one.
Amongst many things I’ll discuss and explain, I’ll be talking about this graph today. It’s curious how different strategies can throw out similar graphs. If you have seen some recent graphs I posted up you will spot the similarity, but the strategy …
Racing post security breach
Just so I can send the message out to all channels as quickly as possible. It looks like Racing Post has suffered a security breach and people with accounts there may have had their details compromised. Racing post appear to be putting a message on their site this morning but it’s returning a 404 error at the moment. However I have had a couple of people send me this email. We are running a thread on the forum for people …
Market watching – Day of the drifter
I’m an avid market watcher. Every day for years I’ve collected data on what I’ve been doing and what the market is doing, where the odds are going, what’s happening etc. This allows me to ‘look under the bonnet’ of the market and understand what is going on. On occasion it throws up some real anomalies. On Monday we experienced some of that.
Monday was the ‘day of the drifter’. If you would have laid the favourite, the majority of …
What England need to do….
First off, while the England vs. Germany match will be must watch viewing for both countries this evening, personally I think the Sweden vs. Portugal match will be a cracker and is set up nicely for some drama and great potential trading opportunities. Ibrahimovic or Ronaldo won’t be going to Rio, who will it be?
Meantime back at Wembley England have a chance to show they are ready for Rio.
I don’t think you can read too much into the …
Santa delivers early xmas present
No I haven’t finally got a Christmas card from Betfair, just a catch up on events at Santa Anita a couple of weeks ago.
I’ve had an on off relationship with the breeders cup over the years but this year turned out to be quite good in the scheme of things. It was marked by good and bad races but the good ones produced something and the bad ones didn’t really lose much. So I’d rank 2013 as one of …
Why friendlies can be a trading minefield
I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out, but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.
Friendlies, especially like those tonight, are for managers to try a few things out. Shove some fresh talent onto the pitch and see how they perform. Change shape, try a few tactics and …
Using Bet Angel on the Ladbrokes exchange
With the launch of the new Ladbrokes exchange, we’ve had lots of people asking if we are going to produce Bet Angel for Ladbrokes?
But, in fact, we have already and it’s free. Basically BETDAQ Angel is already compatible with Ladbrokes because the Ladbrokes exchange is based on the Betdaq exchange model. All bets on the Ladbrokes exchange feed into Betdaq and vice versa.
So you can see how, we thought we would show you what happens on the Ladbrokes …
Europa league ratings – 20:05 kick offs
I’ve priced in 33 goals in this batch of matches. Ranked from most goals to least, expected variation to long term average.
Tottenham vs. Sheriff Tiraspol – 138%
Az Alkmaar vs. Shakhter Karagandy – 123%
Sevilla vs. Slovan Liberec – 118%
Lazio vs. Apollon L. – 112%
Rapid Vienna vs. Genk – 106%
Estoril vs. Freiburg – 105%
Thun vs. Dinamo Kiev – 101%
Legia Warsaw vs. Trabzonspor – 97%
Maccabi Haifa vs. PAOK – 97%
Rijeka vs. Lyon – …
Champions league ratings for Wednesday
Excluding the early kick off.
Barcelona vs. AC Milan – 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna – 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal – 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke – 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille – 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest – 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic – 103%
I’ve priced in 21 goals this evening.
Champions league ratings for Tuesday
Expected variation to average of goals scored. Most goals to least.
Plzen vs. B Munich – 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht – 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow – 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid – 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen – 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray – 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd – 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica – 93%
I’m penciling in around 24 goals this evening.
Melbourne cup
Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.
So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the …
Derby Day
Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….
If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the Breeders Cup in Santa Anita.
Typically the Friday on Breeders Cup day is …
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