Posts Tagged europa
Europa league final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 12th, 2010
Who would put it past Fulham to end the season in glory tonight? Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus and Hamburg have all been beaten by Fulham en route to the final, with just Atletico Madrid now standing in their way.
The match itself is priced for a low scoring affair with a slight edge to Athletico. The market is pricing in a paltry 2.40 goals, which means the draw should be a likely result for 90mins. I predict if you played this match 100 times the average time of the first goal would be around 34 minutes. There is around an 8% chance of a goal between 0-10 minutes.
We found a total of 134 matches on our database which had very similar characteristics to this match. Over these matches an average of 2.33 goals where scored with a 0.50 advantage to the shorter priced team (Ahletico in this case). 45% ended as home wins, 22% away wins and 32% draws. 61% of the time these matches produced under 2.50 goals, pricing the unders market around 1.64.
Trading the draw and scenarios based on a lack of goals / early goals seems a sensible option tonight.
Europa league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 29th, 2010
Really looking forward to the Europe league this evening. There are strong cases for a goal coming from any of the four teams this evening. So a strategy oriented around this or NOT 0-0 seem sensible this evening. Come later in the game, if there are no goals, neither side will have anything to lose with a strong push in the last few minutes. It will be an interesting night.
Last night I was spot on about the Barca – Inter game and it really felt like it was unlikely to be a three goal or more game. Don’t really know where the market got that from? Tonight is less clear cut but Liverpool vs Atl Madrid is priced for near on three goals and Fulham vs. Hamburg two and a bit. I don’ t think either is unreasonable given the aggregate scores. The market is expecting at least one Liverpool goal.