Posts Tagged tennis
Murray suffers shock defeat
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 25th, 2010
1.12 turned over, in a shock defeat.
However, short odds turned over in these sorts of matches are not uncommon. If you limit a match to three sets then the propensity for an upsets shoots up. One break of serve, if you are serving first, wins you the set. A couple of errors in the next set and the match is over. If the prospect of a shock was high, then it was in space yesterday when Tipsy took Murray to a tie break in the first set. After wining that, the maths and Tennis gods were always working against Murray.
The percentage difference of one server winning a point against another is typically quite small. So, thanks to the unique scoring system that tennis has, tiny errors can result in large end results. But this is especially so when there are fewer sets to be played.
Best trading match of the tournament?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 20th, 2010
It’s not often you get such close matches so early on in a tournament, but massive credit to James Blake for almost pulling off a big shock today. It could be one of the best trading matches of the tournament; I think it will difficult to beat. In the last set you could have laid Del Petro at 1.06 only to see him reach break 2’s just minutes later. Fantastic stuff, great trading fodder and very entertaining too. Del Potro is currently on course to meet Murray in a later round.
Del Potro won, eventually, 6-4 6-7 (3-7) 5-7 6-3 10-8.
Tennis trading advice
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 18th, 2010
I was asked to write a primer on trading tennis markets last month. You can view the full article in this months ‘Gambling on line’ magazine. Unfortunately I can’t publish this article here just yet, but I thought I would point it out for you so you can read up in time for some action on the Australian open tennis in Melbourne. I have talked about Tennis trading quite a lot on this blog as well, so be sure to do a search and read up on some of my previous posts.
Early rounds of these sorts of tournaments are often dominated by very short priced favourites. If you want to do some speculative work in the markets it can often throw up some easy profits. When Nadal got of to a rusty start today he drifted from 1.02 to a slightly panic driven 1.09. At 1.02 you can lay of a lot of liability for little risk so this was an excellent opportunity.
However, the main thing that caught my eye today was Fabrice Santoro. Santoro has become the first ever player to successfully compete in grand slam tournaments over four decades! Full story on this link, a remarkable acheivement.
Surprise exit for Murray?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 12th, 2009
I was suprised to see people claim that Andy Murray’s exit from the Paris masters was a surprise. Despite such a late night last night, Murray was in action again today and looking very tired. I thought his price was pretty short but it got very short indeed when he won the first set. From there Murray really ran out of steam and I thought it was odd that the market hadn’t priced this in. Just goes to show that stats can only every tell you one side of the story.
US Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 15th, 2009
Last night rounded off a great US Open for traders. With an unseeded player winning the womens, defeating the two Williams on the way and Federer losing the mens final, it’s been a great tournament. Federer was around 1.30’s to win last night but that looked under pressure when a call was overturned by Hawkeye and the match seemed to turn from that point. I think that the last grand slam has probably been the best trading fodder all year, in what has been a good year.
There is a good summary on the BBC website: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2009/09/so_what_will_be_your.html
Bizarre finish in US open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 13th, 2009
Serving to save the match at 15-40 Serena williams explodes and hands the match to Clijsters. Never seen that before. Unfortunately, I was at a wedding reception and missed last nights matches but caught up this morning. Remarkable come back so far by Clijsters! I’m pleased to see Wozniaki in the final as I earmarked her a little while ago as one to watch. Still recovering from a late night so I haven’t really looked in any depth at anything today, will just chill instead.
US Open tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 11th, 2009
I tend to perform better in the early parts of tournaments as I benefit exponentially from shocks. Also, as the tournament progresses, its easier to make mistakes in close matches. One thing that has caught my eye is the rain delayed match from last night. I think the Gonzalez / Nadal match has the possibility of throwing up some interesting characteristics when they return.
I have always been a fan of taking a position during enforced breaks or initiating one at least. It’s so important to stay in the zone when you are playing at such a high level of sport that an enforced break can often throw up opportunities. One to keep your eye on.
Murray mullered
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 8th, 2009
Andy Murray was completely outclassed this evening in New York. Cilic dominated the match to win in three straight sets and fairly easily. Despite only have a first serve percentage of around 30% in the second set, Cilic still dominated a poor Murray to cruise to victory. The warning signs were there from the off and the second set confirmed Murray’s error strewn display.
Even after taking the first set you could still Lay murray at 1.30’s and he never really got into the game. Pre off £2m was traded on Murray at 1.08 & 1.09. A boon for low layers and as I mentioned the other day even if the favourite goes on to win its quite possible to trade out at break even or a profit. If the favourite doesn’t, the upside is huge. Federer is now odds on to win the title again and Del Potro is looking now looking quite interesting.
US Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 3rd, 2009
When I have a look at a Tennis match I am always looking for where the biggest potential upside is. Tennis is scored in such a manner that reversals in fortune occur with quite remarkable regularity. With these reversals come very sharp movements in odds. Bartoli vs Clijsters is a good example from yesterday evening, after the racing!
Clijsters started at 1.30ish (I missed the exact start) and as Bartoli grew in confidence Clijsters price moved all the way out to 2.30’s, a 100% trade. That was the high point for Bartoli as she eventually called on the trainer and slumped from that point onwards. By levelling the match Clijsters moved back to her starting price and onward from there.
I like opposing the favourite in a match as there is always tons of upside available and your downside is clearly definable. If you look at the match that followed the Clijsters match you can see how it is possible to still escape with a profit even if the favourite whitewashes his opponent.
Del Petro was priced at 1.05 to beat his compatriot Monaco, so I offered up some money to lay Del Potro at 1.05 which was matched. If Del Potro took the first set then his priced would come in a bit but if he got off to an indifferent start his price would shoot out. As it was, he got of to a comforable start and Monaco never really got into it, though he did fight hard on the first few Del Potro service games. This meant it was easy for me to trade out for a small profit despite the fact it was obvious no upset was on the cards. Only a tiny profit, but of course if Monaco had broken Del Potro then the price would have really started to move. A nice set up, lots of potential profit but little downside, in fact none at all. That’s why Tennis is such a nice sport to trade given the right setup.
Montreal Murray
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2009
An interesting match. Del Potro sneaked the first, Murray the second, both on tie breaks, and then Murray trounced a tired looking Del Petro in the last. At potentially 1-1 in a three set match a tie break can bring some really significant opportunties and that was proved once again today. Murray traded around the 3’s at worse but after leveling the match his price crashed back into the starting price of 1.50. A quick and brutal swing. For a small punt you would have clearly defined upside and if Murray lost, the match was lost as well. A fairly simple risk reward, mechanism.
One interesting thing about this match was the wild swings in odds, this says a lot for how it was specifically traded. You will also notice on the graph the very clearly defined odds models being used in the market. In all a very interesting tournament and final.
Roddick vs Del Potro
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 15th, 2009
Roddick or Del Potro? No idea to be honest, both could easily win. But the interesting thing about this match is that if it’s a tight one you will get a massive swing in the final set. I’m up early in the morning so I can’t trade it, but if you are trading it this match has some potential.
Federer crashes out
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 15th, 2009
With Nadal and Federer losing at the Montreal Masters, Andy Murray now has a great chance to pop up one place in the rankings to world number two.
Federer’s match was quite remarkable being two breaks up and 5-1 up in the final set, but still losing. Scott did a good post on the market on his blog. At 5-1 up in the final set I calculated his odds at 99.7% or basically 1.00, so no particular value at 1.01 to lay but Tsonga was priced at 370 on my spreadsheet. He was available to back at 500’s. Hindsight it a wonderful thing isn’t it! Even taking into account the price that still only represented a 0.3% chance of winning.
Interestingly, holding serve reduced those odds to 41, the break 32, another hold to 3.57. Just shows you that when a Tennis match swings it often does so in spectacular fashion.
Murray serves up another great trade
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 31st, 2009
If the Tennis carries on like this we could be in for a cracking warm up to Wimbledon. Murray again stuttered at the start of this match today, but fought back to take the first set. A weary Tipsarevic then retired after losing. Very similar scenario to the previous Murray trade. Murray is on court again today, so worth taking a look in what is likely to be a more competitive match.
In clay trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2009
Great news, it’s the French Open. Your last chance to practice your Tennis trading before Wimbledon. While you are having a practice take a look at Bet Angel’s Guardian feature which is perfect for Tennis training. I’ve uploaded a video here: -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4X25nbH7vA
Murray served up a good start trading opportunity with a roller-coaster against an opponent ranked well below him. Starting at 1.05 and out of sorts, Murray sort of stumbled through the early part of the match with a bunch of unforced errors.This handed the initiative to Starace.
At 1.05 Murray looked a certainty but I’d always prefer to lay at this level. I didn’t though, as it was early on in the tournament and I didn’t expect a struggle. What I did do however was sit and wait for a turning point. With Starace heading for a 2-1 set lead I decided to get involved. I was really looking for Murray to get his game together, grab a few points or games and for Starace to drop his head. Sport is all about confidence and being in the zone. If you reach that point or fall out of it, things change.
I missed the exact turning point, but managed to back Murray at 2.14 when he seemed to step up a gear with some demoralising shots against his opponent. From there Murray really started to play better and better. My exact entry was determined by the change in mood on court but equally importantly, the up and downside risk. At the point I got involved Starace was priced to win the second set. If he did, my downside was limited but if Murray, ranked 100 places higher, turned things around the price would collapse back towards the starting price of 1.05 pretty quickly. That’s exactly what happened. Once Murray found his gear things really started to motor and Starace lost his way. When the price reached 1.07 I laid the trade back into the market for a fully green profit of 100% of my stake. I greened at this level for a similar reason as at the top. Here the upside was limited and the downside more prominent. As the match progresses the swings get wilder so for the sake of a few pound it was worth closing out. I also needed to get out for a walk or something for lunch. The road from 1.07 to 1.01 was going to take a bit of time and it didn’t make sense to hang on given the risk profile. Considering all the above it made sense to close at that point.
In all an excellent trade, Andy, I owe you another beer.
Classic final underway?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 1st, 2009
Odds on Federer after losing the first set
Currently watching some great tennis this morning at the Aussie open in Melbourne. I’d be happy to hit just one of these shots when I play tennis, let alone on each stroke. It’s generating some great trading opportunities as well. Unfortunately I have promised to take the kids swimming so I am likely to miss out.
As an example, when Nadal broke Federer in the first set the price moved out a fair bit, but this also left Nadal to serve for the set. He successfully served out this game. The move took the odds from 1.60 to 2.50 a move of 90 ticks. The logic on this type of trade was pretty easy to understand. If Federer won his game the odds would move in a little. If he lost, Nadal would serve for the set and you would get a significant move.
Over the last few years I have focused more and more on modelling Tennis and finally cracked all the detail last year. This makes it much easier to pinpoint key points when you can look ahead and see the odds and understand where the low risk trades are. But when you think about it, most of the areas are quite obvious. The only disadvantage you have without all the data is you may not understand just how much the odds are likely to move.
Classic battle underway in Melbourne
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 30th, 2009
With the weather messing around with the horse racing again its great to see a real battle under way in the Aussie open Tennis. The two Spaniards just don’t want to give up on this one and it’s gone to a fifth set. With such a close match you will get massive swings in the final set, often for little risk so it’s worth keeping an eye on progress in between the fits and starts of the racing.
Murray at the aussie open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 22nd, 2009
I haven’t been able to do much on the open for obvious reasons but have been following it as best I can. It’s a real shame as I have continued working on Tennis for some time now and I planned to let rip on the open. That will have to wait for now.
At the start of the tournament I wrote down the rankings of the players Murray was likely to play. So far it’s spot on, here is the list: -
R1 1140
R2 84
R3 31
R4 14
QF 5
SF 1
TF 2
He was pretty much 1.01 to win the first, 1.02 for the second and now 1.07 for the third round. From here on in, things get a bit more tricky. He would likely end up playing Nadal in the semis and Federer in the final.
For the full draw, click here.
Magnificent Murray
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 12th, 2008
Two years after beating Federer at the Cinny Masters Andy Murray finally managed to get the same masters title under his belt and move up to an all time six in the world rankings. The final showed that there is plenty of room for improvement. Djokovic never managed to put any real pressure on Murray’s serve but Murray still had to battle out a 7-6 7-6 victory. The game should have been long over before the final tie break was played out.
Over the last couple of years I’ve worked hard to improve my understanding of Tennis and how it is priced and late on in the second set there was some clear opportunities to back Murray at good odds. Due to the scoreline the odds were accurate but it was clear from a dominance and psychological perspective Murray was in the ascendancy. Right near the end of the match, thanks to the two set format, you could have backed Murray at 1.37 when he was only a matter of points away from the title. However, Murray’s inability to convert his advantage would have had you sweating now and again. Still, a pleasing chunk of opportunities occurred in the game.
Such is Murray’s inconsistency though, that he has subsequently crashed out in Beijing at the first attempt to somebody ranked 71 places below him. Still a work in progress.
The fall of Federer
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 1st, 2008
You couldn’t have missed the news that Roger Federer lost again this week and is about to lose his status as the worlds number one tennis player. Cincinatti is not Federers favourite venue, he lost to Murray there two years ago and he also struggled in the prior round against Ginipri (See the Betfair chart). Putting those facts aside, what’s behind his slump in form?
Having played a lot of sport when I was young I think I know the answer. I am also confident it applies to most top athletes. In simple terms its psychology and physiology.
Physiology
Psychology
I was good at sport but a bit of a generalist; In another life I am sure I was a decathelete! I never really had the support to get above county level but I enjoyed my sport and set myself some stiff challenges. In hindsight I didn’t set the bar high enough and I achieved a number of my targets quite easily. Knowing that I could never get to the much higher level I lost a bit of ethusiams and my performance waned. I remember watching David Duval push Tiger Woods close in the British Open, a year later he pulled it off and won the event. From that point on his form collapsed. It’s remarkable how often you see that, but especially in golf which can punish even the slightest dip in spectacular fashion.
Targets and achievements are important motivators in sport. Beating an opponent, achieving a ranking, or something you dreamed of as a child can really drive a competitior forward. Upward momentum has a dramatic effect on performance. In contrast being at the top and slipping can be a problem. Those shots you used to attack, that flag you could reach suddenly becomes a little harder. Your confidence is dented and knowing your prior performance wasn’t as good, or knowing that there is even more on the next shot than before, doesn’t help you perform.
You often find atheletes quitting while at the top of their game. From both aspects I have pointed out, this makes sense. It’s unlikely that similar heights will continue to be reached in future years and being remembered as a supreme champion writes you into the history books.
From a practical perspective for quite a few years the low backers on Federer have had a field day, but for some time I have recommend laying him. Regardless of his past skill the future is never certain for an athelete and backing at low odds when somebody has been at their peak for some time is a dangerous game. Laying at low odds has limited downside and lots of upside whereas a lot of atheletes experience the opposite effect at the top of their game. Federer still has a lot to offer, but it looks like he is now someway from invincible.