ubetido wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:13 am
Hi
Thank you for your input Bluesky. I understand what you have written.
Do you find the favorite will move first (Most liquidity) or react to the other horses movements in the market.
I would like to tell you its always the favorite that acts first or its always the other horses, but hardly anything in trading always happens that's what makes it very difficult. One thing that might be of some use to you is to watch the book percentage.
If the fav starts to come in and nothing else goes out the book percentage is going to start rising. Now the favorite will not be able to keep coming in unless something starts to go out, so if the book percentage is say 103%, and the fav is stalling, if your on the favorite, now is the time to be keeping a very close eye on the other runners.
You need to see one or more of the other runners starting to drift so that the book percentage will come down closer to 100% and so allow the favorite some room to keep coming in.
Experienced traders can take all this and many other things into account almost without thinking about it, but they wont have been able to do this from day one. That's why it takes the few that succeed quite a long time (hundreds perhaps thousands of screen hours) before it all comes together.
I understand the frustration in your posts you would like nice straight forward answers to your straight forward questions, unfortunately pre race trading is not like a basic maths equation where if something is equal to x then y must be equal to so and so. I really wish it was like that but it is far more nuanced.
Over the years hundreds of people have take PWs and many other sports trading courses, I've chatted (either in person or on line) with quite a few of them. All of them have told me (without exception) that even after taking a trading course they still lost money for quite some time after, and some are still losing money now, but are determined to try and crack it.
The few that succeed really enjoy what they are doing, you might almost say they become addicted to trading, I think if you don't really love what you are doing then the chances of you eventually getting there are really small. The pros on this board such as Letiss recommend that you should trade what you know about and enjoy. This makes a great deal of sense to me. So if you love football and have a great passion for it, then that should probably be the first sport you want to look at with regards to trading.