First major tournament of the season and here's a simple DOBBING strategy which, far from being bombproof, could provide an interest for people who don't have the time to actively trade the tournament.
The Strategy
- Before the tournament, back all players that have odds between 20.00 and 500.00 (there are around 50 of them at the time of writing).
- Place a lay bet for each of these players at half the back odds and double the stake. For example, back Bubba Watson at 20.00 for £1, lay him at 10.00 for £2. In fact, I prefer laying him at slightly lower (9.40 for £2.13) to beat the 5% commission and effectively double up if my lay gets matched.
- After placing the lay bets, remember to instruct Bet Angel / Betfair to "Keep All", so your lays will stay in the market during the whole tournament
Past Results
2016: +10pt profit (30 dobbed, 20 didn't)
2017: +7pt profit (35 dobbed, 28 didn't)
US Masters 2018
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Hi,northbound wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:30 pmFirst major tournament of the season and here's a simple DOBBING strategy which, far from being bombproof, could provide an interest for people who don't have the time to actively trade the tournament.
The Strategy
- Before the tournament, back all players that have odds between 20.00 and 500.00 (there are around 50 of them at the time of writing)
- Place a lay bet for each of those players at half the back odds and double the stake. For example, back Bubba Watson at 20.00 for £1, lay him at 10.00 for £2. In fact, I prefer laying him at slightly lower (9.40 for £2.13) to beat the 5% commission and effectively double up if my lay gets matched.
- After placing the lay bets, remember to instruct Bet Angel / Betfair to "Keep All", so your lays will stay in the market during the whole tournament
Past Results
2016: +10pt profit (30 dobbed, 20 didn't)
2017: +7pt profit (35 dobbed, 28 didn't)
Out of curiosity, do you know how many odds >= 100.00 dobbed ?
Thanks,
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Here's the full list of players for the past two US Masters, with their starting odds (basically the first odds they were matched at inplay) and inplay minimum odds.BetScalper wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:35 pmOut of curiosity, do you know how many odds >= 100.00 dobbed ?
2016
Code: Select all
name bf_sp bf_ipmin dobbed
------------------------------ ---------- ---------- ----------
Jason Day 8.0 3.1 Yes
Rory McIlroy 10.0 2.94 Yes
Jordan Spieth 13.0 1.09 Yes
Bubba Watson 15.0 9.4 No
Adam Scott 15.5 14.5 No
Rickie Fowler 19.0 12.5 No
Dustin Johnson 22.0 4.8 Yes
Phil Mickelson 23.0 16.0 No
Justin Rose 25.0 6.6 Yes
Henrik Stenson 27.0 16.0 No
Louis Oosthuizen 40.0 22.0 No
Hideki Matsuyama 40.0 4.5 Yes
Patrick Reed 48.0 42.0 No
Charl Schwartzel 55.0 48.0 No
Brandt Snedeker 70.0 9.4 Yes
Zach Johnson 75.0 23.0 Yes
Sergio Garcia 80.0 14.0 Yes
Branden Grace 85.0 80.0 No
Jimmy Walker 90.0 32.0 Yes
Paul Casey 90.0 17.0 Yes
Marc Leishman 90.0 85.0 No
Danny Willett 95.0 1.01 Yes
Brooks Koepka 95.0 40.0 Yes
Matt Kuchar 100.0 44.0 Yes
Rafael Cabrera Bello 130.0 90.0 No
Bill Haas 150.0 140.0 No
Ryan Moore 160.0 130.0 No
Charley Hoffman 160.0 100.0 No
Martin Kaymer 180.0 170.0 No
Justin Thomas 200.0 160.0 No
Jason Dufner 210.0 170.0 No
Shane Lowry 210.0 18.0 Yes
Chris Kirk 220.0 200.0 No
Andy Sullivan 220.0 160.0 No
Ian Poulter 230.0 44.0 Yes
J.B. Holmes 230.0 55.0 Yes
Kevin Na 240.0 110.0 Yes
Kevin Kisner 240.0 150.0 No
Bernd Wiesberger 270.0 80.0 Yes
Angel Cabrera 300.0 110.0 Yes
Bryson DeChambeau 310.0 24.0 Yes
Lee Westwood 320.0 5.0 Yes
Daniel Berger 320.0 70.0 Yes
Byeong Hun An 320.0 230.0 No
Billy Horschel 330.0 80.0 Yes
Harris English 330.0 140.0 Yes
Jamie Donaldson 350.0 110.0 Yes
Keegan Bradley 370.0 75.0 Yes
Hunter Mahan 370.0 120.0 Yes
Smylie Kaufman 410.0 7.6 Yes
Graeme McDowell 420.0 250.0 No
Danny Lee 430.0 30.0 Yes
Matthew Fitzpatrick 440.0 85.0 Yes
Anirban Lahiri 450.0 310.0 No
David Lingmerth 450.0 220.0 Yes
Scott Piercy 480.0 34.0 Yes
Webb Simpson 510.0 280.0 No
Victor Dubuisson 520.0 110.0 Yes
Jim Herman 530.0 100.0 Yes
Russel Knox 540.0 450.0 No
Ernie Els 550.0 500.0 No
Emiliano Grillo 550.0 130.0 Yes
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 560.0 70.0 Yes
Kevin Streelman 600.0 210.0 Yes
Chris Wood 650.0 120.0 Yes
Troy Merritt 670.0 220.0 Yes
Cameron Smith 730.0 670.0 No
Robert Streb 800.0 700.0 No
Thongchai Jaidee 820.0 90.0 Yes
Soren Kjeldsen 850.0 17.5 Yes
Bernhard Langer 870.0 25.0 Yes
Vijay Singh 1000.0 1000.0 No
Larry Mize 1000.0 1000.0 No
Trevor Immelman 1000.0 1000.0 No
Darren Clarke 1000.0 1000.0 No
Mike Weir 1000.0 1000.0 No
Davis Love III 1000.0 160.0 Yes
Vaughn Taylor 1000.0 1000.0 No
Ian Woosnam 1000.0 1000.0 No
Mark OMeara 1000.0 1000.0 No
Tom Watson 1000.0 1000.0 No
Sandy Lyle 1000.0 1000.0 No
Fabian Gomez 1000.0 1000.0 No
Steven Bowditch 1000.0 1000.0 No
Romain Langasque 1000.0 1000.0 No
Jin Cheng 1000.0 1000.0 No
Derek Bard 1000.0 1000.0 No
Sammy Schmitz 1000.0 1000.0 No
Paul Chaplet 1000.0 1000.0 No
2017
Code: Select all
name bf_sp bf_ipmin dobbed
------------------------------ ---------- ---------- ----------
Rory McIlroy 8.8 4.5 No
Jordan Spieth 8.8 3.0 Yes
Jason Day 20.0 11.5 No
Rickie Fowler 22.0 3.9 Yes
Hideki Matsuyama 25.0 19.5 No
Justin Rose 28.0 1.17 Yes
Henrik Stenson 34.0 30.0 No
Phil Mickelson 34.0 8.0 Yes
Jon Rahm 34.0 6.8 Yes
Adam Scott 44.0 10.5 Yes
Sergio Garcia 46.0 1.01 Yes
Paul Casey 48.0 13.5 Yes
Justin Thomas 48.0 19.0 Yes
Marc Leishman 55.0 20.0 Yes
Louis Oosthuizen 60.0 38.0 No
Bubba Watson 65.0 32.0 Yes
Brandt Snedeker 70.0 42.0 No
Russell Henley 85.0 28.0 Yes
Daniel Berger 85.0 65.0 No
Tyrrell Hatton 90.0 75.0 No
Bill Haas 95.0 34.0 Yes
Adam Hadwin 95.0 85.0 No
Brooks Koepka 100.0 46.0 Yes
Matthew Fitzpatrick 110.0 16.0 Yes
Charl Schwartzel 120.0 15.0 Yes
J B Holmes 120.0 46.0 Yes
Shane Lowry 120.0 20.0 Yes
Patrick Reed 120.0 80.0 No
Lee Westwood 120.0 21.0 Yes
Thomas Pieters 120.0 9.0 Yes
Jimmy Walker 130.0 80.0 No
Gary Woodland 130.0 90.0 No
Kevin Kisner 130.0 85.0 No
Tommy Fleetwood 140.0 85.0 No
Ryan Moore 150.0 12.0 Yes
Matt Kuchar 150.0 50.0 Yes
Charley Hoffman 160.0 4.9 Yes
Soren Kjeldsen 160.0 34.0 Yes
Danny Willett 160.0 48.0 Yes
Branden Grace 170.0 110.0 No
Alex Noren 170.0 50.0 Yes
Emiliano Grillo 170.0 150.0 No
Martin Kaymer 180.0 60.0 Yes
Brendan Steele 180.0 120.0 No
Zach Johnson 190.0 120.0 No
Bernd Wiesberger 190.0 150.0 No
Jason Dufner 200.0 23.0 Yes
Ross Fisher 200.0 44.0 Yes
Francesco Molinari 210.0 180.0 No
Rafael Cabrera Bello 210.0 130.0 No
Jhonattan Vegas 210.0 160.0 No
Angel Cabrera 250.0 120.0 Yes
Kevin Chappell 260.0 60.0 Yes
Pat Perez 270.0 160.0 No
Jim Furyk 280.0 230.0 No
Steve Stricker 280.0 280.0 No
Hudson Swafford 300.0 290.0 No
Kevin Na 310.0 260.0 No
Scott Piercy 310.0 85.0 Yes
Russell Knox 320.0 90.0 Yes
Chris Wood 330.0 100.0 Yes
Andy Sullivan 410.0 50.0 Yes
Byeong Hun An 490.0 140.0 Yes
Webb Simpson 510.0 140.0 Yes
William McGirt 520.0 16.0 Yes
Jeunghun Wang 520.0 260.0 No
Fred Couples 540.0 42.0 Yes
Sean O'Hair 580.0 260.0 Yes
James Hahn 630.0 160.0 Yes
Curtis Luck 680.0 550.0 No
Hideto Tanihara 730.0 220.0 Yes
Bernhard Langer 800.0 200.0 Yes
Vijay Singh 1000.0 1000.0 No
Ernie Els 1000.0 190.0 Yes
Larry Mize 1000.0 1000.0 No
Trevor Immelman 1000.0 1000.0 No
Jose Maria Olazabal 1000.0 1000.0 No
Rod Pampling 1000.0 1000.0 No
Ian Woosnam 1000.0 1000.0 No
Mark OMeara 1000.0 1000.0 No
Sandy Lyle 1000.0 1000.0 No
Billy Hurley III 1000.0 630.0 No
Daniel Summerhays 1000.0 520.0 No
Yuta Ikeda 1000.0 500.0 No
Mackenzie Hughes 1000.0 610.0 No
Si Woo Kim 1000.0 600.0 No
Brad Dalke 1000.0 1000.0 No
Scott Gregory 1000.0 1000.0 No
Roberto Castro 1000.0 530.0 No
Brian Stuard 1000.0 250.0 Yes
Toto Gana 1000.0 1000.0 No
Stewart Hagestad 1000.0 600.0 No
Mike Weir 1000.0 1000.0 No
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
This is very interesting, many thanks for posting.
Whoops, what an idiot. How to blow your Masters debut: -
https://twitter.com/TreyW_SEC/status/981628272562884608
https://twitter.com/TreyW_SEC/status/981628272562884608
Not clear cut if he will start: -
https://twitter.com/tonyfinaugolf/statu ... 9927499779
He is optimistic but having done the same thing in my youth it hurts like bugger the next day. I would play if I were him, how many chances are you going to get? But you have to consider long-term issues as well I guess. But at least give it a few holes and see how you get on, Golf isn't like a 100m sprint in reality.
https://twitter.com/tonyfinaugolf/statu ... 9927499779
He is optimistic but having done the same thing in my youth it hurts like bugger the next day. I would play if I were him, how many chances are you going to get? But you have to consider long-term issues as well I guess. But at least give it a few holes and see how you get on, Golf isn't like a 100m sprint in reality.
Have a look at this promotion for the Betfair sportsbook: -
https://promotions.betfair.com/ret-exc- ... sters-2018
£10 bet on the sports and they give you £5 on the exchange, but the sportsbook is at 132% so the bet can be hedged on the exchange and the profit they make is mainly returned to you as a 'free' bet. It seems completely mental to me.
https://promotions.betfair.com/ret-exc- ... sters-2018
£10 bet on the sports and they give you £5 on the exchange, but the sportsbook is at 132% so the bet can be hedged on the exchange and the profit they make is mainly returned to you as a 'free' bet. It seems completely mental to me.
Will be interesting to see how deep the other exchanges are this year .. and whether in-running has any depth.
Normally, its a waste of time.
Just something to watch and behold
Normally, its a waste of time.
Just something to watch and behold