Today's Horse Racing
- ShaunWhite
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Obv I can't speak for PW but I do the same....you know where you stand with a flat £100.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:50 pmWhy do you prefer this analysis technique over a variable stake?
What ype of variable stake do you mean, back/lay liability staking or amount per tick? Amount per tick is a inconsistent as a back at 1.99 and one at 2.02 vary so much depending on them steaming or drifting. Any variable staking also makes your RoI harder to work out as you need to know what you (would have) invested for each trade rather than it being simply 100 * #favs.
Flat stakes are a nice simple benchmark and so long as you're doing the same every time, why does it matter?
- ruthlessimon
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Actually yeah, that's a good point - because variable staking does have some real issues (i.e. near XOs, a 1 tick move & you're halving/doubling the stake potentially etc)ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:29 pmWhat ype of variable stake do you mean, back/lay liability staking or amount per tick? Amount per tick is a inconsistent as a back at 1.99 and one at 2.02 vary so much depending on them steaming or drifting. Any variable staking also makes your RoI harder to work out as you need to know what you (would have) invested for each trade rather than it being simply 100 * #favs.
Flat stakes are a nice simple benchmark and so long as you're doing the same every time, why does it matter?
I thought I might as well knock up what those three techniques look like, & yup you're right, fixed tracks it fairly well for the simplicity
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- ShaunWhite
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These are all favs too so the price variation shouldn't be too wild. If you were looking at anything from 2.0 to 500 then fixed would be a pretty terrible idea and be massively skewed towards what happened on the biggies.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:44 pmI thought I might as well knock up what those three techniques look like, & yup you're right, fixed tracks it fairly well for the simplicity
I can't disagree though that there's probably a more accurate way to track it, scrap the cash aspect and just use Move% ? That's if we can find a consensus about what that means
- ShaunWhite
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Or 4...How about measuring it with "predictive tick size"? ....ie work out your amount per tick from the closing price band rather than the opening one? Could be b*ll*cks but I know you like your alternative methods. I still think the best thing is to remove the whole issue of step sizes and stakes and go for a %age.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:44 pmI thought I might as well knock up what those three techniques look like
- ruthlessimon
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Umm yeh.. I'll have to try get my head around that oneShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:31 pmOr 4...How about measuring it with "predictive tick size"? ....ie work out your amount per tick from the closing price band rather than the opening one? Could be b*ll*cks but I know you like your alternative methods. I still think the best thing is to remove the whole issue of step sizes and stakes and go for a %age.
you guys need to exchange skype contact detailsruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:50 pmUmm yeh.. I'll have to try get my head around that oneShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:31 pmOr 4...How about measuring it with "predictive tick size"? ....ie work out your amount per tick from the closing price band rather than the opening one? Could be b*ll*cks but I know you like your alternative methods. I still think the best thing is to remove the whole issue of step sizes and stakes and go for a %age.
Some terrible field sizes tomorrow, Doncaster in particular with 3 x 3 runner races and the largest field being 7 runners and that is all before any late withdrawals, chuck in 15 minute gaps after each Cheltenham race and it is looking very uninspiring.
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+1jimibt wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:58 pmyou guys need to exchange skype contact detailsruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:50 pmUmm yeh.. I'll have to try get my head around that oneShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:31 pmOr 4...How about measuring it with "predictive tick size"? ....ie work out your amount per tick from the closing price band rather than the opening one? Could be b*ll*cks but I know you like your alternative methods. I still think the best thing is to remove the whole issue of step sizes and stakes and go for a %age.
All the data is there if you want to assess it by another method. Displaying it to £100 is just the simplest, I doubt Euler has some devious motive for doing it otherwise .
- ruthlessimon
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Well he's only got himself to blame!spreadbetting wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:24 pmI doubt Euler has some devious motive for doing it otherwise .
If you promote a contrarian ideology - you gotta expect people to refute every bit of mainstream advice given !!
- ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I thought I remembered that 'challenge everything' message from somewhere.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:22 pmIf you promote a contrarian ideology - you gotta expect people to refute every bit of mainstream advice given !!
I found this nice twist on it.
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