Hi All
Has anyone had any success backing the Top Rated Horse on the BF Timeform ratings ? I rarely see them win - my thoughts are to lay these selections
Any thoughts would be appreciated or where to find previous stats on previous Timeform ratings so I can back test the results
Betfair Timeform Ratings
I've used timeform 'on and off' for 29 years. They used to advertise a lot that their 'top rated' horses won 40% of the time. In reality it was more like 37%. You certainly will not make a profit long term backing their top rated horses.
Now don't get me wrong, as I do believe Timeform is a useful resource. In the days when I was purely punting I would buy the black book when I could (cost around £18/£19 during 90s/early 2000s). Every single purchase of a black book found me winners which would at least pay for the book even if I didn't have a profitable month.
The thing with tmeform as you no doubt know is that not only do they have top rated horses but also 'p' and 'P' horses. Often the top rated horse may only be 1lb superior to the 2nd rated horse.
Now don't get me wrong, as I do believe Timeform is a useful resource. In the days when I was purely punting I would buy the black book when I could (cost around £18/£19 during 90s/early 2000s). Every single purchase of a black book found me winners which would at least pay for the book even if I didn't have a profitable month.
The thing with tmeform as you no doubt know is that not only do they have top rated horses but also 'p' and 'P' horses. Often the top rated horse may only be 1lb superior to the 2nd rated horse.
Making money backing horses involve taking a number of factors into consideration before deciding on a horse's chance and whether it's value. A horse's rating is just one piece of the jigsaw. I wouldn't expect it to be very profitable simply backing top-rated horses. Often the value lies in horses that have been overlooked in the betting who are not too far down the ratings.rencoetz wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:19 amHi All
Has anyone had any success backing the Top Rated Horse on the BF Timeform ratings ? I rarely see them win - my thoughts are to lay these selections
Any thoughts would be appreciated or where to find previous stats on previous Timeform ratings so I can back test the results
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Timeform is a good resource, but you could combine the Racing Post Rating and the Topspeed Rating on the racing post website for free. Maybe strong L2B opportunities instead. Ideally In-Play, if it starts to run badly. Pre-Play too, if others latch on to it.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:34 amMaking money backing horses involve taking a number of factors into consideration before deciding on a horse's chance and whether it's value. A horse's rating is just one piece of the jigsaw. I wouldn't expect it to be very profitable simply backing top-rated horses. Often the value lies in horses that have been overlooked in the betting who are not too far down the ratings.rencoetz wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:19 amHi All
Has anyone had any success backing the Top Rated Horse on the BF Timeform ratings ? I rarely see them win - my thoughts are to lay these selections
Any thoughts would be appreciated or where to find previous stats on previous Timeform ratings so I can back test the results
It is of course a good starting point, you can dig a little deeper for other areas of weakness too.
Ok, here's an example...potential egg on face...
Kelso 12.50 29.Dec Goldencard (Trading at 3.05 favourite)
It has strong competition using both ratings and a short price.
Sorted by Racing Post Rating.
Sorted by Topspeed.
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- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
That worked well Pre-Off...
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- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
GoldenCard hit a low of 1.41 for money. Could never get to the leader, did run well though.
Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:34 amMaking money backing horses involve taking a number of factors into consideration before deciding on a horse's chance and whether it's value. A horse's rating is just one piece of the jigsaw. I wouldn't expect it to be very profitable simply backing top-rated horses. Often the value lies in horses that have been overlooked in the betting who are not too far down the ratings.rencoetz wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:19 amHi All
Has anyone had any success backing the Top Rated Horse on the BF Timeform ratings ? I rarely see them win - my thoughts are to lay these selections
Any thoughts would be appreciated or where to find previous stats on previous Timeform ratings so I can back test the results
Precisely