Hi,
I've used a few software packages including BA, and it seems to me that "Greening" up has missed a major point. Please correct me if I'm wrong - I won't mind.
As far as I know greening up in all software packages out there means making "greening" bet(s) at current available prices to achieve the same profit regardless of the result. Seems logical, however, I think this idea is fundamentally flawed. I would have thought that the greening up process should distribute the final green bet(s) so as to match the odds taken at the time (accurate enough in the long run). Or at least have this as an option.
For example, imagine a two horse race where one horse is odds on at $1.05 (95.23%) the other at $21 (4.76%). Total is 100%. You trade well on the favourite and are showing $10 “greening up” profit regardless of the outcome.
My problem is that the expectancy of the favourite to win is roughly equal to its SP (or you could use your own prices if you think they are more accurate), in this case that's $1.05 (95.23%). So the favourite will win about 19 races before it loses one to the outsider. So why after all that hard work do we give we give the likely loser an equal portion of profits?
Or in the end does it not really matter?
Any thoughts?
Thanks
JH
Modified "Greening" up
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