Unique Strategy!
I reckon all but the very basic strategies and approaches, if you outline them on paper would be as unique as your fingerprints. For example, back the draw between 2.8 and 3.1, close on 27 minutes or after the first goal. How many people in the world would use that exact strategy? How many would have a very similar (e.g. 25-30 minutes) strategy?
- ShaunWhite
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Tricky topic, my instinct was the opposite. 000s of minds, a limited number of approaches, and each approach can be optimised within a fairly narrow range of params. The strategies that need bespoke software could be rarer though.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:31 pmI reckon all but the very basic strategies and approaches, if you outline them on paper would be as unique as your fingerprints. For example, back the draw between 2.8 and 3.1, close on 27 minutes or after the first goal. How many people in the world would use that exact strategy? How many would have a very similar (e.g. 25-30 minutes) strategy?
I'd guess that there's more than one person using any given winning strategy, but there's a hell of a lot of people using very unique losing strategies.
Tempting question but a tricky one, I'd say it's pretty rare but not like it really matters in the end.
I've developed a few approaches on football that I'm sure nobody else is using, maybe one as well thus far on racing inplay but difficult to tell for sure with that market. As to why, if you think about it there's really only one way you can be sure no one else is using your strategy.
Regarding others, from what I've seen at least, I don't think I've seen anyone using a truly unique strategy, seen a few people with extremely niche approaches but they're not the only ones using those. But there's probably quite a few unique approaches out there.
- ShaunWhite
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The only way to know would be to ask everyone who ever trades, 10s of 000s of people. And with 10s of 000s of people in an industry that's 20yrs old, I'd have thought the odds of an original thought is becoming vanishingly small. As for a whole new approach I think the chances are nil.
But it depends on how you define a strategy though, what is the question we all think we're answering? Is it an all emcompassing strategy such as 'getting value in running' or is it 'getting value in running by selecting based on a complex last 4 race pace formula, price acceleration over 5 seconds and delaying the bet by 2.45 seconds'. There are a relatively few core strategies and approaches, but there's an infinate number of variations. (For the pedants.. not infinite just very large). So strategy variations would most likely be unique but certain core strategies/approaches might be used by 000s.
It's quite common for devious people to think they're more devious than anyone else, hence why there's so many people in prison who thought they'd committed 'the perfect crime'. Taken too far it becomes a delusional disorder in which they could believe they have a great talent or made an important discovery.
You made me think of Sid James in Carry on Something or Other having a budgie that picked out winners - but then I seem to remember that maybe George of George and Mildred might have had one too - or was it Terry and June or Steptoe and Son or all of them?
Kinda figured that fun little sentence would prompt some kind of a responseShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:13 amThe only way to know would be to ask everyone who ever trades, 10s of 000s of people. And with 10s of 000s of people in an industry that's 20yrs old, I'd have thought the odds of an original thought is becoming vanishingly small. As for a whole new approach I think the chances are nil.
I know it's a bit late for mental gymnastics but thought I might as well leave it there, as a little puzzle, or a trick question. But getting bogged down in semantics was your first mistake btw
Have fun. Or don't.
Last edited by Kai on Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Like when you discover masturbating.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:13 amIt's quite common for devious people to think they're more devious than anyone else, hence why there's so many people in prison who thought they'd committed 'the perfect crime'. Taken too far it becomes a delusional disorder in which they could believe they have a great talent or made an important discovery.
That's something that Kyle Walker still has yet to discover. Hope you don't have to Google that one DerekDerek27 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:18 amLike when you discover masturbating.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:13 amIt's quite common for devious people to think they're more devious than anyone else, hence why there's so many people in prison who thought they'd committed 'the perfect crime'. Taken too far it becomes a delusional disorder in which they could believe they have a great talent or made an important discovery.
Speaking of relaxing, I love how rik does his. He makes his own thread, drops a line, and goes fishing in the middle of the night. Well played sir.
- ShaunWhite
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I was shocked by that, TWO girls!
Surely a high roller like him can do better then just 2. On £110k a week you'd expect his parties to look like a P Diddy party.
And you need a fresh squad at halftime, c'mon Kyle use your imagination ffs and let some of those moths out of your wallet
Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:31 pmI reckon all but the very basic strategies and approaches, if you outline them on paper would be as unique as your fingerprints. For example, back the draw between 2.8 and 3.1, close on 27 minutes or after the first goal. How many people in the world would use that exact strategy? How many would have a very similar (e.g. 25-30 minutes) strategy?
I mean generally different approach not the exact numbers. Like you can tell on the inrunning markets its probably just 1 person making use of the cross matching as bets are always placed in the same way.
There will nearly always be somebody using a similar strategy. How similar or unique yours is is variable and quite hard to quantify.rik wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:54 amDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:31 pmI reckon all but the very basic strategies and approaches, if you outline them on paper would be as unique as your fingerprints. For example, back the draw between 2.8 and 3.1, close on 27 minutes or after the first goal. How many people in the world would use that exact strategy? How many would have a very similar (e.g. 25-30 minutes) strategy?
I mean generally different approach not the exact numbers. Like you can tell on the inrunning markets its probably just 1 person making use of the cross matching as bets are always placed in the same way.
- ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The best automated strategies use a degree of randomness so they're less easy to spot. There are systems running that can detect patterns and respond to them which is often why strategies that once worked well can fade and die. There's some smart people out there doing things you never thought possible and it all contributes to needing to keep evolving, especially if you're operating in niche areas without the cover of 100s of other people.