Mission impossible for Man Utd?
An intriguing tie at Old Trafford and one that Man Utd can’t afford to lose. You would expect that United must win by two to stand any chance of qualifying with the return leg still to come. ‘Dir Roten’ will be well aware of that and I suspect they will be happy to sit back and wait for Utd to make a mistake at first. An away goal would make it incredibly hard for United to qualify so I reckon they will try to catch them on the counter until half time. An early goal would change the game significantly in terms of incentive to score for either team.
Man Utd vs. B Munich
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 23 matches that looked very similar (quite a small number TBH). The market is discounting a 15.2% chance of a Man Utd win, a 65.4% chance of a B Munich win and a 20% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 4.3% chance of a home win, a 60.9% chance of a away win and a 34.8% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 23.26 1.64 & 2.87 respectively (The draw is a little too low but that’s probably due to lack of matches in the sample).
The market is forecasting 3.04 goals. Historically there have been 2.52 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.71. Historically 39.1% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 2.56. Basically, because of the nature of the return leg and the desperate need for Man Utd to score the market is anticipating an attacking performance from Man Utd.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 52.2% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 87% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 13% of occasions and three or more goals on 65.2% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 65.2% of occasions and three or more goals on 17.4% of occasions.Both teams have scored 52.17% of the time or decimal odds of 1.92.
Category: Football trading strategies
