How did the world cup draw affect your teams chance?
Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much?
The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, only an decline of 0.25% in implied probability terms. They had little change, they have slightly less. Spain suffered the most as their chance of winning dropped over 1% from 8.2 to 9 in decimal odds. But you can also add Brazil and the Netherlands as having equally ‘bad’ luck. But of course Brazil can console themselves as they are still the favorites with just under a 22.2% chance of winning on home soil.
Here is the full before and after list of the draw, ranked by order of change, positive to negative: –
Argentina From 6.8 to 6 a change of 3.85%
France From 23 to 24 a change of 1.23%
Belgium From 18.5 to 17 a change of 0.48%
Colombia From 25 to 24 a change of 0.46%
Switzerland From 150 to 110 a change of 0.24%
Russia From 100 to 85 a change of 0.18%
Ecuador From 170 to 150 a change of 0.17%
Ivory Coast From 190 to 180 a change of 0.1%
Bosnia From 200 to 210 a change of 0.09%
Nigeria From 350 to 320 a change of 0.01%
Japan From 180 to 190 a change of 0%
South Korea From 520 to 510 a change of 0%
Algeria From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
Iran From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
Honduras From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
Costa Rica From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
Greece From 330 to 360 a change of -0.01%
Australia From 660 to 810 a change of -0.03%
Cameroon From 750 to 1000 a change of -0.03%
Mexico From 140 to 150 a change of -0.05%
Uruguay From 27 to 30 a change of -0.11%
Portugal From 38 to 40 a change of -0.13%
USA From 200 to 300 a change of -0.17%
Croatia From 220 to 270 a change of -0.19%
Ghana From 260 to 270 a change of -0.22%
England From 28 to 30 a change of -0.24%
Italy From 29 to 30 a change of -0.67%
Chile From 42 to 60 a change of -0.71%
Germany From 7.8 to 7.2 a change of -0.82%
Netherlands From 34 to 30 a change of -1.01%
Brazil From 4.3 to 4.5 a change of -1.03%
Spain From 8.2 to 9 a change of -1.08%
Category: Football trading strategies
