Punters ask for Moore

19/06/2015 | By | Reply More

We are all familiar with a gambled horse.

It starts when a horse in a race receives particular attention. Seeing that horse is being backed, other people back it feeling they may be missing out on something. You find that often sets off a gamble as people discount a lot into the movement of the price of the horse as a ‘sign’, usually without any regard for the underlying rationale.

The Partnership gambler

Yesterday, we were treated to a different type a gamble, the ‘partnership gamble’. In this type of move as a jockey and trainer partnership appear on ‘form’. They appear to have peaked at the right time and by winning a few races, that sets off gamble on future combinations of jockey and trainer. The poor horse doesn’t seem to come into it at times!

More Moore

The theme of royal ascot this week has been Ryan Moore. He has ridden eight winners from eighteen races so far this week and is expected to add to that tally as his partnership with Ballydoyle reaps huge rewards. It’s somewhat reminiscent of Frankie Dettori’s unforgettable Ascot performance in 1996 when Frankie Dettori won seven races in a row. This wasn’t at Royal Ascot however and it would be remarkable to think if anybody could ever achieve a significant number of consecutive winners at the Royal meeting. But seeing a form partnership was what sparked off the huge gamble that took place yesterday. The partnership was in great form and punters just wanted more and Moore!

Race One

The fun and games started with Waterloo bridge which was ridden out to win. There didn’t seem to be much to note in the market on Waterloo Bridge.

1430 - Waterloo Bridge_9412054 - Wins

Race Two and Three

In the next race Disengo was backed slightly but came home fourth. It was only when we came to the third race that the heavy backing began. There was a really chunky bet that came in for Curvy and it’s price shortened and Ryan Moore rode out to win.

1540 - Curvy_8669324 - Wins

1505 - Disegno_8565297 - Fourth

Race four – The Gold Cup

The feature race of the day, the gold cup, was where the action really went into overdrive.

I have never seen a group race quite like it. The market was all over the place, It felt more like a seller on the all-weather in the middle of winter. General prices on the market flew all over the place and on the Ryan Moore horse, Kingfisher, you had some of the most bizarre moves I’ve ever seen in a quality racing market. I was lucky to escape with £100 profit. Anybody trading at market could’ve ended up or down significantly!

1620 - Kingfisher_7578902 - SecondRace five

This immediately drew my attention to the next race. Significant backing had pulled pricing already and when I turned to trade the fifth race it was interesting to note that the price it started to drift. It seems like a bit of common sense and returned to the market! But that wasn’t to last, as Ryan Moore got another winner!

1700 - War Envoy_8492657 - Wins

 

Race six

Riding war envoy home to win kicked off heavy backing in the final race of the day. Dissolution was backed heavily and the price came crashing in, almost at the moment at which the previous race had finished.

It felt to me as though this had been significantly overdone and I was looking for an opportunity to lay it. I just needed the market to give me an opportunity. Eventually, that opportunity did occur, a huge back order entered the market and the price activity temporarily ground to halt.

It looked to me as though it was unlikely to head in any further, The backers were just exhausted! So at that point, I decided to start laying. I Actually tweeted my intention because I knew that what I was about to do would be likely to have an impact on other people trading the same race, so I thought it was prudent.

I don’t believe for a minute that I move the market, but I could see that other people were seeing what I could see and that everybody had started to lay and the price would almost inevitably drift. I often don’t have the time to narrate a trade real-time, but this seemed appropriate as it was so obvious and deliberate and there was plenty of time before the start of the race.

The rest, as they say, is history!

1735 - Dissolution_8706066

 

Summary

Yesterday turned out to be my best day at Ascot this week and probably one of the most interesting days that I’ve ever seen at Ascot. The instability of the feature race were something that was not welcome, especially at big race stakes, and was a big surprise. Feature races like the gold cup should really be solid, solid as a rock and it’s was surprising to see how weak the market was on Betfair.

Betdaq traded well again yesterday, though I did make more on Betfair yesterday for the above reasons. But I’m headed for a decent week.

I’m also looking forward to the remaining two days!

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Category: Horse Racing, Trading strategies

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