I've never lost on the Epsom Derby
The Derby is one of the standout events on the racing calendar, and it holds a special place in my heart for many reasons.
One reason the Derby stands out for me is that, remarkably, I have never lost on it. This unbroken streak over the years is not just luck but the result of a disciplined approach to betting and trading, and the suitability of this market.
Another reason I like this event is that it marks the launch of Betfair, which truly transformed betting markets and gave me an outlet for betting seriously on sports.
Therefore, it marks an opportunity to reflect on that journey and where I am currently. But first, how does the Derby trade?
Betfair trading the Derby
The Derby is a big race.
The most I have seen matched on it is £8.5m, but the average is much lower. It generally matches around £3m, but much depends on the set-up of the race, the price of the favourite and any special interest in the race.
The general rule of thumb is that a short-priced favourite drives more interest and volume. The opposite is also true.
It’s a race that you can trade for extended periods, and a competitive field will make the movements slow and, generally, predictable. It’s one of those races where I will be actively for a long time, trying to get as many orders through the market as possible.
Reflecting on 25 years of the Derby on Betting Exchanges
In June 2000, Betfair launched the first betting exchange, revolutionising the betting industry. Unlike traditional bookmakers, which often restricted winners, Betfair allowed users to bet against each other without limitations.
This innovation created a fairer playing field and opened up new opportunities for bettors like me. It’s clear that betting exchanges profoundly changed the landscape.
I’m incredibly grateful for their invention. They finally gave anybody with an opinion an outlet. If you had an idea, something that would work if the logic was right. You wouldn’t be up against a house with a vested interest in ensuring you couldn’t win.
Persistent Challenges in the Betting Industry
Despite the transformative impact of betting exchanges, many of the old challenges remain.
Traditional bookmakers still impose restrictions on successful bettors, maintaining a reputation for being difficult to beat. It’s frustrating to see that, in many ways, the industry hasn’t progressed much since the early days of Betfair. The narrative that “the bookmaker always wins” is still prevalent, even though betting exchanges offer a viable alternative.
Old habits die hard, it seems.
The Role of Social Media and Corporate Interests
Social media has significantly influenced the betting world, often prioritising quick wins and simple tips over strategic, long-term approaches.
I’m still amazed that people who act like tipsters or punters of 50 years ago, which is no longer relevant, still get any coverage. Then again, I’m not. It’s emotionally appealing, if financially disastrous!
This shift has been amplified by corporate interests that push and reward the promotion of high-margin products like slots, Casinos and Accas.
These products are designed to ensure quick losses, making them more profitable for companies but less beneficial for bettors. The focus on instant gratification has overshadowed the more substantial opportunities presented by betting exchanges.
If the industry wanted to engage a younger audience, it has failed. In an age set for Crypto trading, the industry missed the opportunity to leverage that into sports trading, probably because it was focused on short-term gains.
That is such a shame.
Finding Opportunities in a Changing Landscape
In the last year, I created probably my best achievement with an elegant piece of automation—something I’d never thought of or tried before. This is my primary motivation for continuing to prod and probe the markets. I love those moments when I discover something new.
This also shows that, despite the many challenges that accrue over time, the opportunities within betting exchanges remain significant. Over the past two decades, I have continued to find success by staying focused, avoiding distractions, and having a positive outlook.
The key is to think outside the box and recognise the potential that still exists. Anyone can succeed in this field by maintaining a strategic approach and leveraging the unique advantages of betting exchanges.
Embrace the Challenge
As I prepare for another Derby, I am reminded of the enduring opportunities. While the industry has changed, the potential for success remains.
By staying focused, avoiding the noise of quick fixes, and embracing the strategic depth of betting exchanges, there is no reason why you can’t achieve something special.
The opportunities are out there—you just have to be willing to find them.