Trading The Open Golf Championship
Golf isn’t the first thing you think of when Betfair trading. But, curiously, golf was one of my first markets on Betfair. This was somewhat accidental as back then I was arbing (a sort of matched betting) between bookmakers and Betfair. So my Betfair trading Golf heritage goes all the way back to June 2000.
My focus is really only the Golf majors nowadays. These are the markets with big liquidity and narrow spreads, which makes for a good combination when trading.
Understanding the Uniqueness of the Open Golf Championship
As July arrives, it’s time for the Open Golf Championship. Unlike other Majors, the Open is played on links courses, which present unique challenges due to their coastal locations. The undulating grounds, sea breezes, and thick roughs make links courses fundamentally different from the well-manicured parkland courses like Augusta. This distinct environment is what I want to look at in this article.
How Course Layout and Length Affect Play
One striking difference in the Open is the length and layout of the courses.
For example, where this year’s Open is held, the course is around 7,200 yards, significantly shorter than the 7,800-yard Erin Hills where the US Open was played in 2017 or the 7555 yards of the US Masters. The shorter length of links courses, combined with tougher fairways, can be a game-changer. This setup doesn’t favor big hitters but rather those who excel in precision and strategy.
Why Experience Matters More Than Youth
From my analysis, younger players often have the advantage in terms of driving distance. However, on a links course, accuracy and experience come into play more critically.
The ability to navigate the challenging roughs and variable breezes often seen in links golf makes older, seasoned players more competitive. Their experience in handling difficult shots can outweigh the raw power of younger players.
Leveraging Golf Statistics for Better Betting Decisions
Betting on golf, particularly for the Open, requires a deep understanding of player statistics. There are a plethora of stats available on PGA and European Tour sites. For instance, while some players may top the charts in driving distance, it’s important to look beyond that. Scrambling, putting accuracy, and approach shots are crucial metrics that can provide a more comprehensive picture of a player’s potential performance on a links course.
Finding some profit at The Open Golf
Since 2006, only one favourite has won The Open. The average winner’s odds are over 100, with a few shorter-priced winners like Spieth and McIlroy. Confidence is key in golf, and players in good form often continue to perform well. However, US-based players tend to struggle with the long trip and links courses. Players who arrive early and play in local tournaments tend to do better. Nearly all winners had played the week before and finished well, with most top finishers having previous top ten finishes in The Open.
Covering Your Bets
With over 150 players in the field, predicting a single winner is tough. Instead, consider a range of selections. Using the dutching tool in Bet Angel trading software, you can back multiple players with a fixed liability. Often, at least one of your picks will perform well and shorten significantly in odds, allowing you to trade out for a profit or leave some money on them for the title. You don’t need all your selections to perform; just one good move can cover your losses.
Trading Tips
I tend to lay leaders or shorter odds when they are reaching a harder part of the course and repeat that as many times as I can to build a total over the tournament. I treat the period to the cut differnetly from ther period after the cut as the pairings are completely different.
Other things that can help you are: –
Difficult Course and Weather: A tough course or bad weather can create trading opportunities.
Leaders by Rounds: The leader after round one wins only 10% of the time, after round two 26%, and after round three 46%.
Business End: Focus on players close to the lead by the final rounds. Historically, nobody has won The Open after being more than six shots behind after the third round. Narrowing this to three shots still finds a winner 83% of the time.
Use these strategies to increase your chances of finding a winner or making profitable trades during The Open.
Final Thoughts: Experience and Strategy Are Key
To sum up, the Open Golf Championship’s unique conditions can often favor more experienced players over younger ones. The distinct nature of links courses demands precision, strategic play, and the ability to adapt to challenging environments. By leveraging detailed player statistics and understanding the specific demands of links golf, you can make more informed and potentially successful bets. So, as you follow the Open this weekend, keep these insights in mind and hopefully, you’ll be able to pick a decent trade or a winner.