Why that betting system you bought won’t work
When I first got involved in betting, I signed up for a service that published betting systems. Each week I would get a list of them and basic instructions.
Of course, none of them worked, but I knew that. I was just interested in what sort of things were being touted. That would help me understand what people thought would work and also the sort of things that most people were focused on.
Wind forward all these years, and people still buy systems, sometimes for eye-watering amounts. But they still won’t work.
Why is that, and why are they less likely to work now?
We know when something is popular
We often field queries in support, asking how to implement something. But the guys always look for queries that don’t make sense. So a caveat we issue before telling people how to automate something, is to point out its flaws and risks.
We can’t stop people from doing something daft, but we can highlight the problem and hope people take it on board. That’s what I aim for with this article.
Betfair trading isn’t a system
When it comes to Betfair trading, many people mistakenly call it a ‘system,’ but it’s actually a whole different ballgame.
Think of Betfair trading as a powerful tool that can take any betting system and supercharge it. The key is getting the best price, which is what Betfair trading excels at. Unlike traditional betting, where you’re simply picking a winner, Betfair trading allows you to profit from the market’s volatility, regardless of the final outcome.
If you’re used to outright markets or accumulators, you’re engaging in conventional forms of betting. Betfair trading, on the other hand, is all about capitalizing on market movements. This distinction is crucial, yet often blurred by those looking to sell you a ‘miracle’ system.
In essence, Betfair trading is a way, not a system.
Just like tote betting, outright betting, or even each-way betting, Betfair trading is a unique way to engage with the market. They’re all part of the betting world but are not systems by themselves.
What people are looking for
If you take a look at most betting sites, social media influencers, and affiliates, you’ll notice they know exactly what the average punter desires: a low-cost, straightforward, and easy-to-implement betting method that promises a passive secondary income. Sound familiar?
These modern sellers of so-called ‘systems’ don’t have to guess what people want anymore. They simply mimic what others are doing or use SEO analytics to hit those hot buttons that will make you buy into their schemes.
But here’s the catch: they don’t work. And the truth is, these people don’t care. Their goal is to extract money from you, not to help you succeed.
Can you blame them? Earning money this way is effortless and low-risk if they can get away with it. All they have to do is convince you they’re an expert, then either sell you something or get paid to promote it. The result? An ego boost from being seen as an ‘expert’ and a healthy bank balance from their sales.
Typically, these individuals create the illusion of providing helpful information by copying others, sprinkling in some buzzwords, and tweaking the system slightly to add ‘value’.
The real issue arises when countless people start doing this, leading to an odd situation where the original, valuable content gets lost in a sea of duplicates. What you’re left with is a confusing jumble of misinformation, which is often worse than simply using a basic, sensible staking system.
Having been in the market from the start, I’ve produced a lot of original content. I’ve seen it reused countless times, which is expected, but over time, it drifts so far from the original message I intended. Errors and misinterpretations slip in, leaving me baffled by what I’m reading.
No wonder people end up confused. The landscape can become an absolute mess.
How popular systems become established
One of the earliest betting systems I encountered is still circulating today in various forms.
The original creator likely never imagined that nearly 20 years later, people would still be plagiarizing and reinventing his system. Even I’ve gotten caught up in it. With so many people asking for my views on it, I ended up producing content on this particular system, mainly to highlight the good and bad practices surrounding it.
Back in 2004, when I first examined this system, I saw it had a high strike rate, but I couldn’t find any solid reason it would be profitable in the long term. To test my theory, I wrote some simple automation to track its performance over a year. As expected, it didn’t make any money.
Curious about the system’s claims, I decided to explore the website further. In a moment of inspiration (or perhaps sheer curiosity), I retyped the URL with “/admin/” at the end. To my amazement, this led me to a page listing the entire customer database, complete with full names, addresses, and various other details. It even showed a list of affiliate payments.
To my surprise, this non-profitable system had earned the author nearly £250k in sales, with about £60k paid to affiliates. Ironically, many of those affiliates were also system sellers. There’s no better audience to sell to, I suppose.
True expertise takes time and effort to develop. Like most things, the more effort you put in, the greater the reward.
Unfortunately, most people opt for the quick and easy path to money. You can skate by for a while, but eventually, you’ll have to face the reality that you’re not an expert and haven’t made much money. At that point, you’re on thin ice, having potentially committed fraud.
Most people quietly disappear into the shadows with their ill-gotten gains, but some brazenly bluff their way forward with implied authority, hoping they won’t face any consequences.
People aren’t incentivised to tell the truth
We face a real problem in the betting industry: there’s little incentive for people to tell the truth. Instead of focusing on factual, effective strategies, the sell side is driven to create something that’s merely appealing.
There are no penalties for publishing misleading information, and no checks to see if a system seller actually uses their system or has made any money from trading or betting. This lack of accountability doesn’t matter. In fact, it’s made worse as sellers compete with each other, offering more enticing claims and promises. This leads to systems straying far from their original purpose, often descending into pure fantasy.
Many of these systems seem to work at first glance, but it’s usually a trick. As I’ve often discussed, most systems are designed to produce a string of winning bets or trades. You might ask, “What’s wrong with that?”
The issue is that winning doesn’t necessarily mean profiting. It’s easy to rack up frequent wins and still fail to achieve long-term profits. Understanding this distinction is crucial before embarking on your trading journey.
If you can’t wrap your head around this concept, your chances of making money in the long run are slim to none. Check out this video, where I explain this in more detail.
The ultimate reason betting systems don’t work
Much has changed since those early days when I first explored basic betting systems.
Back then, the common excuse for selling these systems was that the creators couldn’t use them because they were banned from betting. I experienced this early in my betting career, so it seemed reasonable to cash in on your expertise.
Fast forward a few years, and betting exchanges have completely changed the game. Now, you won’t be banned for winning. If you find a strategy that works, the sky’s the limit!
In reality, liquidity is the only limit. If you try to bet or trade above the available liquidity, you might influence your outcomes. So, it’s essential to stay within the market’s liquidity limits. Within those boundaries, you can earn as much as possible.
One of the most significant changes is the ability to bet and trade automatically.
Historically, even if you found a profitable strategy, you might have struggled to scale it or find the time to place all the bets. Now, with automation, you can bet and trade 24/7. It’s like having an unpaid employee working tirelessly for you.
In short, if you find a winning strategy, automate it to maximize your returns. That’s the key!
I run multiple automated systems daily, each quietly doing its thing, patiently waiting for opportunities, or executing its betting or trading plan diligently in the background. For me, 95% of the work was done by analysing and developing the strategy, and now it just runs seamlessly, working away for me.
The secret to finding a winning system
The best system you can use is one you develop yourself. But how do you create such a system?
Perhaps you have specialist knowledge of a sport or a unique angle that sets you apart. That’s fantastic, but always keep one crucial point in mind: in an efficient market, if you bet or trade randomly, you’ll more or less break even, minus commissions. So the barrier you’re trying to overcome is relatively small.
When I first entered the scene over 20 years ago, the first thing I did was start betting and trading at random. This key step taught me how the market functioned and how small changes could impact a strategy. It provided me with a foundation to build upon and set my objective: to be profitable.
From there, I continued testing, tweaking, and refining my approach. I learned how each market operated, why it behaved the way it did, and what happened when I tried something different.
It’s possible to take a traditional betting or trading system and tweak it slightly to make it profitable. However, it’s essential to realize that variability in a strategy may take time to reveal itself. You won’t know if it works until you’ve experienced an entire cycle, especially in sports.
Many people never reach this point. That’s where another crucial aspect of a successful system comes into play: psychology. Systems go through winning and losing streaks, and it’s human nature to panic during a losing run or become overconfident during a winning streak.
This is where automation shines. In this sense, traders can sometimes be their own worst enemies.
Automation simplifies trading by allowing you to adopt a ‘set and forget’ approach, providing objective feedback from the market. This is much harder to achieve with manual trading alone.
I trade both manually and automatically, but both methods rely on me being just a bit better than completely random. It might sound strange, but that’s more or less my ‘secret,’ and it can be yours if you’re willing to put in the work.
Which, in my experience, most people are not!
Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out my new betting system. It’s available now in limited numbers, with a discount for the first 20 lucky buyers.