How to use the Draw bias in horse racing markets
Draw bias refers to the tendency for horses in certain stall positions to perform better at specific tracks. This is crucial in shorter flat races where timing is key, and the use of starting stalls ensures a fair start.
Stalls are numbered from the rail outward, with the lowest draw closest to the rail. Horses near the rail often have a slight advantage, known as a ‘favourable stall draw’, as they cover less ground and can follow the rail more easily.
However, not all races use stalls. For longer races or those during the jump season, starting stalls are unnecessary as the initial advantage diminishes over greater distances.
There are some anomalies, and the stalls’ failure to operate correctly could see a flagged start. At Salisbury racecourse, it’s not possible to put stalls at the 1m6f start, so no stalls are used.
Understanding draw bias requires analysing individual courses and their unique characteristics, as factors like rail position and stall placement can significantly influence race outcomes.
How the racecourse layout can effect draw bias
There are some courses where there’s virtually no draw bias and there’s some courses where there’s a very high draw bias. The easiest way to understand this is to actually go on to Google Maps and have a look at the courses.
When you look at races like Ascot that are over five furlongs to a mile, the horses will just belt down that course as it’s simply a straight line!
That said they can occasionally run over longer distance on the old round course, so watch out for that.
When Ascot was redesigned, the straight mile was made to be relatively flat and drain well, so the going is pretty consistent across the entire 1m flat racing course. Extending the course to run flat over even ground has balanced out the racing from the round course.
This means there isn’t a significant draw bias at Ascot when run on a straight mile as each horse in the stall has a roughly equal shot due to the lack of curves in the course and the consistent going.
It’s important to note that going can affect the draw bias.
If you have a front runner that is drawn away from the good ground, you may find that they try and find that ground at the start of the race. Big fields will also affect the impact draw bias as horses shuffle for position and are further from the rails.
In comparison to Ascot, Chester is a course where the bias is really well understood.
If you look at the circuit on Google Maps you can see that it’s almost circular.
Unlike staggered starts in athletics, they don’t stagger the stalls to balance out the inefficiency of running on the outside of the track. Therefore Chester has a really strong draw bias, especially over shorter distances.
At Chester, you can see that the draw bias on somebody in a higher stall is significant, whereas somebody’s drawn on the low end of that is obviously going to benefit from grabbing the rails and running a shorter distance.
So when you look at individual courses, each of them have their own specific draw bias. So how could you use this?
Using draw bias to your advantage
A helpful tool to understand what courses have the strongest draw bias can be analysed on a website called – https://www.drawbias.com/
It talks through all of the individual courses, all of the individual races and the different lengths which is very helpful when exploring this phenomenon.
But don’t forget that field sizes, the going, running styles and different parts of the course can affect the exact impact of the draw. Esssentially you are looking at draw and pace most of the time.
If you look specically at the automation within Bet Angel, we do actually allow options to use the stall draw. The reason we put the stall draw in there is so that you can actually take advantage of draw biases.
There is no question that certain courses produce different results to other courses and that will manifest itself in a number of ways. The winners who are likely at to win those courses, the percentage off set that you can do when you’re looking to Dobb or things like that, they all vary according to individual courses and to trading strategies as well.
The important thing to realise is that in UK horse racing, there is no standard type of course. When you look at the courses in the UK they’re wildly different. They produce different results and favour some horses more than others, whether it’s across certain distances or certain biases .
Understanding draw bias is very useful as it can be used within any specific trading strategy especially in-play Betfair trading strategy If you want to learn more about taking advantage of applying automation to courses that have a very strong draw bias, then watch this video.
Using draw bias when Betfair Trading
When Betfair trading, understanding and utilising draw bias can give you an edge, particularly in shorter flat races where stall positioning significantly impacts performance.
Because different tracks have different biases a few winners on one side of the draw or another will setting of backing on favourites in a similar draw.
Changing ground conditions can also have an effect.
You often see jockey’s walking the course. The reason they are doing that is to find the ‘good’ ground. They are trying to find where a horse can get a better line down the course and steal a few yards on it’s rivals.
For this reason, if certain groupings of stalls pick up a few winners, money will come for horses draw in that section. Especially if they are at shorter prices.
Additionally, you can monitor in-play action to see if the horse benefits from its stall position as expected, adjusting your trades accordingly. Understanding draw bias, therefore, adds another layer of insight, helping you make more informed and profitable trading decisions on Betfair.