I've never lost on the Epsom Derby
The Derby is one of the standout events on the racing calendar, and for me, it holds a special place. For a number of reasons.
One reason the Derby stands out for me is that, remarkably, I have never lost on the Derby. This unbroken streak over the years is not just luck, but the result of a disciplined approach to betting and trading.
Another reason is that it marks the launch of Betfair, which truly transformed betting markets, and gave me an outlet for betting seriously on sports.
Therefore it marks an opportunity for me to reflect on that journey and where I am currently. But first, how does the Derby trade?
Betfair trading the Derby
It goes without saying that the Derby is a big race. The most I have seen matched on it is £8.5m, but the average is much lower than that. In 2023, it matched £3.2m, so I suspect it will matched somewhere between £3-4m this year.
It’s a race that you can trade for extended periods of time and a competitive field will make the movements slow and, generally, predictable.
Reflecting on 24 years of the Derby on Betting Exchanges
Back in June 2000, Betfair launched the first betting exchange, revolutionizing the betting industry. Unlike traditional bookmakers who often restricted winners, Betfair allowed users to bet against each other without limitations.
This innovation created a fairer playing field and opened up new opportunities for bettors like myself. It’s clear that betting exchanges profoundly changed the landscape.
Persistent Challenges in the Betting Industry
Despite the transformative impact of betting exchanges, many of the old challenges remain.
Traditional bookmakers still impose restrictions on successful bettors, maintaining a reputation for being difficult to beat. It’s frustrating to see that, in many ways, the industry hasn’t progressed much since the early days of Betfair. The narrative that “the bookmaker always wins” is still prevalent, even though betting exchanges offer a viable alternative.
Old habits die hard it seems.
The Role of Social Media and Corporate Interests
Social media has significantly influenced the betting world, often prioritizing quick wins and simple tips over strategic, long-term approaches. This shift has been amplified by corporate interests that push and reward promotion of high-margin products like slots and casinos.
These products are designed to ensure quick losses, making them more profitable for companies but less beneficial for bettors. The focus on instant gratification has overshadowed the more substantial opportunities presented by betting exchanges.
If the industry wanted to engage a younger audience, it has failed. In an age set for Crypto trading, it feels like the industry missed the opportunity to leverage that into sports trading. Probably because it was focused on short term gains.
That is such a shame.
Finding Opportunities in a Changing Landscape
In the last year I created probably my best achievement with an elegant peice of automation. Something I’d never thought of, or tried, before. This is my main motivation for continuing to prod and probe the markets. I love those moments when I discover something new.
This also shows that, despite the many challenges that accrue over time, the opportunities within betting exchanges remain significant. Over the past two decades, I have continued to find success by staying focused, avoiding distractions, and having a positive outlook.
The key is to think outside the box and recognise the potential that still exists. By maintaining a strategic approach and leveraging the unique advantages of betting exchanges, anyone can find success in this field.
Embrace the Challenge
As I prepare for another Derby, I am reminded of the enduring opportunities in the betting world. While the industry has changed, the potential for success remains.
By staying focused, avoiding the noise of quick fixes, and embracing the strategic depth of betting exchanges, there is no reason why you can’t achieve something special. The opportunities are out there—you just have to be willing to find them.