End of the football season? I predict a draw
I’ve been tracking the matches for many years now and while many things in football are unpredictable, Italian football often wasn’t so random.
In fact this happens in a number of leagues around the world, but it was Italian football that first highlight me to the end of season draw.
Italian football, Bellissimo
As part of my preparation for each weekend’s football fixtures, I pull in all the matches via Bet Angel Guardian and a couple of pre-set rules point out areas of interest.
Each year it throws up something odd around the last matches of the season in Italian football. Scan down the list and in the section of ‘dead-rubbers’ you will find a whole load of matches where a draw looks almost certain. It happens every year.
Slightly short odds
I can reel off years of similar scenarios but for here are some examples. The volume of matched bets on this one match is way above any other match on the same day and 88% of the volume is, unusually, on the draw. I can’t help but wonder what the result of this match will be? Cesena needs a point from this match to avoid any chance of relegation.
Draws tend to be priced towards mid 3’s in a match and often in the 4’s. If I see something at 3.35 that feels about right for a reasonable competitive match. Perhaps two reasonably matched teams with the faovurite playing at home.
If you get a match where a team is favoured in the match odds market, then odds around 4.00 are likely. The stronger the favourite, the longer the price of the draw.
To get a very short priced draw is incredibly rare, because it’s so difficult to acheive ‘naturally’.
Lets look at Konyaspor vs Galatasaray. Konyaspor need a draw to be certain to avoid the drop and Galatasaray to win the title. So what do you think the price of the draw is?
Finding value
As this is a regular occurrence, more and more people pick up on it now and it is it is possible to pick off matches that are likely to exhibit these characteristics in advnace.
You could probably argue there is a case for some value betting going on given the prior year results. But obviously, if you identify these matches, there is an opportunity to get in at-large odds when the market opens or with bookmakers who are not wise to these scenarios.
Though you do wonder if you may get palped if that happens
Summary
The end of the season brings matters to a close on relegation and promotion. But unlike most major leagues, it seems that Italian football has a sense of pre-ordination about it.
Despite a couple of major match fixing scandals, it seems the soclal pressure of stopping somebody from achieving their aims overrules normality at the end of many Italian seasons. It will most likely repeat again this year.