Trading Goodwood and Galway
Here is a post about how to trade GoodWay on Betfair.
No that’s not a typo! There are two race meetings that should get your attention during this busy week. The feature meeting of the week is the Qatar Goodwood festival, or Glorious Goodwood, whichever you prefer. This is a race meeting that should definitely get your attention this week.
The grounds surrounding Goodwood house are known for many things, including the Goodwood festival of speed. But the racecourse, which is perched on the West Sussex downs is surrounded by stunning countryside. It’s one of a number of racecourses I’ve visited over the years and it’s up there on the list of racecourse and meetings I would recommend.
If you are into Golf, the Goodwood estate also has a decent Golf course. It’s a bit of a favourite of mine after I discovered the area many years ago.
From a trading perspective, I like multi day high-quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to any month.
Goodwood racing – Trading conditions
As you may know, these higher-quality meetings produce extra volume, changing the characteristics significantly when you are trading on Betfair.
But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume pre-race but it’s not as much as some major meetings. Therefore it can be a little tricky at times to get exactly right.
When you look at in-play markets the course topography ensures an ‘interesting’ challenge as horses navigate very variable terrain.
I tend to find that money piles into Goodwood in the sort of manner you get at other major horse racing meetings. It sort of forgets to look at the race card and above-average money ploughs into the lower quality stuff as well and that makes the fill rate poor.
Most Betfair trading strategies rely on fill rate in one form or another over the long term. So lack of it can be frustrating and it may impact your ability to trade a betting exchange market. Look at some of these horse racing markets and you may find too much money ends up chasing not enough opportunity. If you find yourself in the position where you lose money when trading at Goodwood, this could be why.
You can pick off some good quality opportunities of course. Typically, the race card at Goodwood is a feature race surrounded by other races at the start and finish of the racing card. So the way that the markets trade, change over the course of the day.
As hinted, the flow on the Betfair exchange feels very different at Goodwood when compared to other major meetings. You may get off to a bad start only to build into some more favourable positions as the day peaks and then end in a similar manner to which you started. It takes a bit of care to flex your aggression appropriately.
The best Goodwood trade ever!
Goodwood is much better than the normal day to day fodder you are used to though, but not quite on the same scale as other major meetings. Last year, at post time, it turned over around 40% on average of a typical Ascot race. So, by all means, welcome a decent festival in the summer, but just have realistic expectations.
The average volume per race at Goodwood is around £1.1m and the meeting is expected to turnover £30-40m on the week. It can be quite variable on individual races and the biggest can match £1-2m and the lowest £500k. That about sums up Glorious Goodwood!
I’ve often had mixed results at Goodwood, so Tuesday is my day for ‘feeling’ the market and testing its boundaries.
There are plenty of themes that can run through these big meetings and get a few drunk racegoers trying to impress their better half on ladies day and you can set off some gambles. You see this at a lost of race meetings, like Frankie Dettori at Royal Ascot 2019 and the same thing happened at Goodwood with Ryan Moore in 2017 as you can see in this video
Trading the Galway Festival
Don’t forget you also have Galway this week as well, so plenty to keep us occupied. Galway runs for the entire week and is a giant p*ss up, apparently, there is some racing on as well!
Irish racing tends to be a little quieter on the turnover front and a good festival tends to the same sort of volume that you would expect for a normal race in the UK.
The interesting thing, as I have pointed out on the blog, is that Betdaq performs well in Irish racing and will perform well at Galway. Again there will be a drop in volume but the fill rate is so much better on Betdaq. I am half expecting to earn more on Betdaq this week at Galway, than on Betfair.
The biggest race last year at Galway produced £882k, the smallest a paltry £144k!
If you are off on your hols soon, This week presents a decent range of opportunities to get stuck into before you head off! So fire up your trading software and make the most of this busy week. Plenty of gaps after this week to enjoy the rest of the summer!