The perfect way to ‘Lay the draw’

One of the most well-known Betfair trading strategies, Lay the Draw, has been around almost since the day the Betfair exchange was launched, yet it continues to remain very popular, especially among new Betfair traders.

In its simplest form, lay-the-draw trading requires you to do just that! Often, the draw is layed just before KO or during the halftime break, usually if it still 0-0 or 1-1. The idea is to hedfe for a profit after a goal is scored and the draw price has risen. Because your opening position is a lay bet, this is only something you can do on a betting exchange.

Like most of these types of football trading strategies, turning a profit in the long term comes down to the right football match selection. You can use many pieces of information to find suitable markets to lay the draw either pre-KO or during the match. But one thing you can’t dig out of stats, which is an essential part of making a profit from laying the draw long term, is how far and in what direction the draw odds will move when that goal is scored.

This depends on two key factors: the current odds of the two teams playing and how much time remains in the match, otherwise known as the time decay.

Lay the draw examples

If a match has a strong odds-on fav, the draw odds would actually shorten if the underdog scored the opening goal in the first half. This is because the probability of a draw now increases. So in a match like this, you will only be able to lay the draw and green up for a profit after a goal if the favourite scores first.

However, if it gets to half time and it’s still 0-0, then the draw price will have shortened a bit, and the fav’s price will have drifted. But as there is now less time for the fav to get back into a match if they concede the first goal, laying the draw now could see a profit secured no matter who scores the first goal – again, this is dependent on the current odds.

With time and experience, you can make some half-decent guesses of where the odds will move to following a goal. You would base this on the current prices of each team and the time left to play.

For those new to trading or looking at this strategy for the first time, this puts you at a disadvantage over others as it means you can’t accurately assess if laying the draw is a good idea at this time of the match.

Display Predicted Odds on your Ladder

There is a way to derive the draw odds following a goal. Using Betfair trading software like Bet Angel, you also have the tools and options to display what the Predicted draw odds will be following the next goal regardless of which team scores on your ladder screen.

You can see in the Pre-off image above this match has a reasonably strong home fav. Should you lay the draw now and the away scores first early in the match, the draw price is only likely to rise to 3.8 (about 5 ticks), whereas if the home team scores first, the price of the draw will shoot out to 6.4, nearly double what you lay at.

Even if you are not laying the draw at the start of the match and instead are looking for an opportunity at halftime or any other time during the match based on what you see unfold on the pitch or in-play stats, the predicted draw price displayed in Bet Angel will continually change and update as the match progresses and time decays so you always have a good idea of how a goal will impact the price.

In the following image taken at HT, if you layed the draw now and the home team were to score first, the draw price would be around 3.15. For an away goal first, the price would be around 8.0.

How it Works

This is done by using two simple rules files that will continually trigger and store the draw prices from the +1 markets. Effectively, these are handicap markets priced as though a team has one goal more than they currently have. They give a glimpse into the future of how the match odds market will re-form following the next goal. Those stored prices are then displayed on your ladder screen.

You then need to configure your ladder settings to display these stored values.

Don’t worry if it sounds a bit complicated; everything is already done for you; both the rules files and the ladder settings have already been created for you. All you need to do is download and import them into your Bet Angel from the bottom of the following forum post, and you’re ready to go.

Using the Betfair automation Files

Display Predicted Draw Odds – this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area.

Once you have imported them into your Bet Angel simply select the Match Odds and the home team +1 and away team +1 markets for each fixture you want to trade and add those markets to Guardian then apply the rules as follows;

Draw Odds Predictor (Home) – This is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 market in Guardian.

Draw Odds Predictor (Away) – Identical to the above rule but needs to be stored to the away team +1 market in Guardian.

For example, the first fixture is in the Guardian image below is Ludogorets Vs Inter.

So, the Draw Odds Predictor (Away) file is applied to Inter +1 market (because Inter are the away team).

And the Draw Odds Predictor (Home) file is applied to Ludogorets +1 market (because Ludogorets are the home team).

And that’s it, once you open the match odds market of that fixture the predicted draw odds following a goal will be displayed above your ladders allowing you to decide if and when it’s the right time to lay the draw.