My Betfair Birthday
They say in life two things are certain, death and taxes. I’m almost certain that one other thing will happen though.
I can imagine it now, I’m lying there on my death bed, my life is slowly ebbing away and finally, I’m gone. I’m pretty sure at that point a message will be sent somewhere saying……
See, I told you he doesn’t trade anymore!
Starting out
As I write this blog, I’m crossing into another year of my Betfair trading journey. If you would have told me all those years ago that I’d still be trading now, I would have scoffed at the thought.
Let’s face it, I got a bit lucky. I’ve always been an early internet adopter of technology, had worked in the industry, I was very familiar with financial market trading and I was taking an active interest in the VC circuit during the dot com boom. But of course, finding an opportunity and doing something about are very different things. But find an opportunity I did.
I remember the moment I discovered the concept of betting exchanges, even before they were launched. It was at a ‘First Tuesday’ even in London. They seemed such a great prospect! Before long I had signed up discovered how to trade and that made me think this could actually be a life-changing moment. It was.
I quit my job and off I went into the unknown.
Complete failure
One of the most intriguing aspects of my journey has been the scepticism I’ve encountered along the way. Initially, I expected some doubt; after all, how often does someone genuinely find a way to make money betting? However, I didn’t anticipate it persisting as my success grew. The reality was simple: being consistently better than the average on the exchange was all it took.
As I soared to new heights, I believed people would eventually grasp the potential. Yet, many didn’t, and this disbelief steered me into new, even more exciting areas. It’s unfortunate that, despite their significant advantages for the average bettor, betting exchanges haven’t become mainstream. The betting landscape, including exchanges, feels stuck in the early ’90s, unchanged and perhaps intentionally so. They remain a niche within a niche, in a geographic niche.
In an era of rapid technological advancement, the betting industry’s failure to modernise its experience is glaring. It’s no surprise the industry struggles with its reputation. I misjudged this aspect significantly. I envisioned exchanges dominating global betting markets by now, but this vision has faltered. Consequently, I still find myself dodging the question, “What do you do for a living?”
How’s it going
I’m reluctant to bring Warren Buffett into a discussion about gambling, given his well-known disdain for the industry. However, his insights on corporate governance are invaluable.
During a talk, someone asked him what advice he’d give to someone running one of his businesses. His response was simple yet profound: “Imagine waking up tomorrow to see all your secrets splashed across a newspaper. Think about how you’d feel and react, and base your decisions on that.”
I might have paraphrased slightly, but this advice has been a cornerstone of my career. It’s why I believe in “eating my own dog food” when it comes to Betfair trading. It’s not common in the industry, and perhaps not necessary, but it’s crucial to me.
While it’s inevitable that I have to change my focus, given my success over a long period of time. Actually sitting here trading, facing up to the same problems as my customers, has always been important to me.
I still enjoy the challenge of trading and finding new strategies. I still get a thrill when I discover something new, pull off a great trade or dig around the data from a previous week.
I guess that’s important in anything you choose to do. It’s important to enjoy it.
Why I collect lots of data
When I started trading, I knew record-keeping was essential from day one. It not only documented my journey, but also helped me quantify, test, and refine my strategies.
I still have the spreadsheet from my first Betfair bet, with significant amounts of subsequent activities carefully archived. While updating it weekly can be cumbersome, this data has been invaluable in solving problems and constructing new strategies & models.
In my office, I also display some of these records to show visitors what’s possible and the effort required. When somebody visited, he wrote an unprompted blog post about it, highlighting what he found. You should have seen the peculiar reactions it got.
So that taught me a really important lesson.
I’ve realised that arguing with sceptics is pointless; I’d rather focus on the positives and help those who see the vision and understand what I’m trying to do.
Betfair markets match tens of billions a year, offering a great opportunity on a level playing field. Even if you’re just slightly better than average, you’ll do well, but like any skill, it takes time and effort to master.
It’s important to realise that your personality will determine a lot of how you trade, what risk you are willing to take and where your best position in the market is. Teach people what, roughly, to do it quite easy. But then you have to take over.
Now and the future
As another year rolls by, I’m still very active in the markets, though my approach has evolved.
Automation has been a game-changer, supplementing my manual trading efforts and elevating my Betfair trading overall. Even when I’m not trading, automation keeps me in the game, which has reshaped my Betfair trading strategies.
Automation has helped me maintain a better work-life balance allowing for a more relaxed trading approach in recent years. I always turn up for the big days, but some of the smaller ones, automation can take care of.
Things like Total Performance Data have allowed me to, finally, create completely automated in-play strategies. Another game-changer.
Balancing life and work has been challenging, partly due to my initial lack of clear goals. When I started trading my objective was to earn as much as possible, never expecting the opportunity to last this long. In hindsight, having specific goals would have been beneficial.
As I get older, I realise the importance of ticking off bucket list items and taking care of myself. The market’s lack of growth means my investments and interests outside sports trading demand more attention, as whichever grows faster will obviously get priority.
But still, trading remains important to me.
Not only due to the significant opportunities that are still there, but for the fact that in an industry that seems geared to ensuring people lose money, I want to share my experience to highlight the better path all punters can follow.
I’ll continue sharing my journey to inspire others. Trading isn’t for everyone, but with realistic goals, sensible approaches, and genuine passion, opportunities abound.
Pursue what you love, leverage your skills, and work hard. Just remember to set a goal!