Sports Trading Seasonality

Sports trading and seasonality

Winter

I’ve always believed that the start of the year is poorly timed. The new year is a time for optimism and a fresh start. Unfortunately, the new year is plonked right in the middle of winter.

If you are trying to trade sports, especially Horse Racing, that’s probably not the best time to start, or is, depending on your outlook. It can also vary by sport, but because my mainstay is horse racing, this article is skewed towards that.

Let’s look at the negatives first because I want to leave you with the positives.

In the middle of winter, disruption to sports in the northern hemisphere is at its peak. As the wind, snow and rain set in, things can feel tough. Trying to find a profit is often challenging, but finding something to profit from in winter can be even more difficult!

There is a tendency to ‘reach’ a bit and attempt to trade markets or sports that are ‘untradeable’ so that you can post a profit or some progress.

In my first winter, this was exactly what I did, it was tough and it felt like I’d bombed, but in fact, it was just part of the sports cycle.

Many winters later, I realise that the ‘off-season’ in your sport is a time to enjoy getting some balance back, and while I’m not an advocate for not trying, it’s OK at this time of year. No matter how hard you try, you just won’t be able to get near the totals you see in peak season. So don’t try; you will probably overstretch.

Always darkest before dawn

As we head out of January, we get a little boost at Cheltenham, but there isn’t much to look forward to in February. On the other side of the world, group racing will return to Australia.

But with each passing week, we get closer to the smorgasbord, Cheltenham, so I start counting down to Cheltenham.

But that’s just the start. As we head into spring, the year starts to pick up momentum, and things start to get really busy again. In the depths of summer, finding the time to do anything other than trade is often difficult.

So I use this time of year, especially February, to chill a bit, do some new things, take a break, and enjoy having dinner with my family. I know I can’t make up the gap no matter how hard I work, so I don’t bother. I tend to holiday in the Winter as I can do so with little to no impact on my annual result.

My top three weeks last year accounted for just under 20% of my annual total, so I should get those right rather than nick a few quid from some hard work on a challenging market at a difficult time of the year.

The positive

The good thing about this time of year is that it’s going upward, so there is much to look forward to. Also, it’s great to spend some time doing other things; trading isn’t as important as key points in the year.

If you overwork at this time of year, you could burn out. If you are mad, you may also work the odd night. So, getting some R&R can be essential. Taking the chance to catch up on a few things is also great. I’m very productive at this time of year,, and new ideas flow almost daily.

Every couple of years, we get a peak in the summer, and every four years, we also peak at the four-year grand sports cycle; what’s that? The World Cup, Olympics, and Euros could mean it’s going to be a very, very, very busy year. So I’m even more likely this year to chill at quieter moments, you should too.

Understanding the seasonality each sport presents to you will help you come to terms with the quieter periods and use your time more productively. It will also allow you to focus on the busy periods and maximise available opportunities.