How to read a Tennis players mind
Psychology everywhere
Psychology isn’t something that is limited to your inner mind if you are Betfair trading. It’s out there on the sports field and in the associated markets as well. For this blog, I’m looking at Tennis markets.
Over my many years, I’ve observed all sorts of strange biases that just don’t have any place in a rational world, but feature heavily and persistently in the markets and in the field of play. The most remarkable thing is that these biases just seem to persist and there seems to be little that people can do about it. It’s just human nature.
Whether you are sports betting, a casual observer of the sport, or Betfair tennis trading, these observations should allow you to get a better perspective on what’s going inside somebodies head in a Tennis match.
If you are looking at Tennis trading strategies, then the sort of thing I’m going to talk about here could be your trading guide when looking at entry points. Traders are looking for breaks of serves, or perhaps how likely somebody is to win the set. That generates the price movements that you can profit from.
What I discovered is that it seems that the characteristics I will lay out, seem to permeate Tennis in a number of different ways. not because they are generate from historical stats, but more because the same biases that afflict people in betting markets also appear on the very field of play that people betting on.
Psychology in Tennis
As a full-time Betfair trader, you’re always on the hunt for that elusive edge. Simply participating in the market with a strategy often isn’t enough; you need to stay one step ahead of the action.
Tennis, at its core, is about how players handle the key moments in a match. This realisation prompted me to delve deeper into these pivotal points, examining individual games to uncover the dynamics at play.
One intriguing question I explored was whether a player approaches 15-0 the same way they approach 0-15, and how their performance shifts when they reach break point. The answers, as is often the case, were far from straightforward.
Understanding these nuances can provide you with a crucial advantage in your trading. By analysing how players react under different scoreline pressures, you can better predict market movements and enhance your trading strategy.
Thinking through the problem
Before diving into analysis, I make it a point to avoid thinking about potential outcomes to prevent accidentally influencing my data mining. However, it’s crucial to establish how you’ll structure your data and what you aim to discover.
Initially, I assumed a professional tennis player would play each point to the best of their ability. Logically, 40-30 shouldn’t differ much from 40-15, and when closing out a game, they might even step up their performance.
Before you read further, consider this: Do you think all points are equal, or are some points more critical than others?
While I avoided preconceived notions during my analysis, I still needed a rough idea of my objective. I considered examining the odds at key points in a tennis match, but I could model expected outcomes well enough. Therefore, I sought another metric to gauge a player’s mindset: service speed.
Average service speed offered a clear measure of how a point was being played. A confident server would serve more aggressively and faster, while a nervous player might serve slower, aiming for accuracy over power. This metric provided valuable insights into the player’s psychological state during critical moments.
Thought experiment
I meticulously sifted through extensive data, initially concentrating on the extremes of 40-0 and 0-40. These points seemed the most obvious places to explore what might be going through a player’s mind during crucial moments in a match.
Top players have a late 70% to nearly 84% chance of winning a point on serve. Even at 0-40 down, they have a decent chance of winning a point and getting back into the game.
However, if a player has to resort to a second serve at this critical juncture, their chances of winning the point drop by 20-30%. Conversely, if they are 40-0 up, they might opt for a more accurate, less powerful serve to efficiently close out the game. This strategic adjustment highlights how players manage high-stakes situations and can provide valuable insights for traders looking to capitalize on these key moments.
The results
Sure enough, the average service speed was different, but not in the way I had anticipated. I imagined that at 0-40, players might go for a strong serve to get back into the game, but the reality was quite the opposite.
To ensure this wasn’t an anomaly, I analyzed each scoreline and ranked them by the number of shots it typically took to finish the game. A clear correlation emerged: the further ahead a player was, the harder they served; the further behind, the weaker their serve.
It makes some sense: a player behind might aim to get the serve in play, but by doing so with less power, they inadvertently give their opponent a better chance to win the point. The data showed that 40-0 recorded the fastest average serve, while 0-40 had the slowest. The deeper the trouble, the slower the service.
While this seems logical in some respects, it defies what one might expect as a solid game plan. One would think that a player in trouble would take more risks to escape their predicament. A slow serve at a critical point gives the opponent an excellent chance to seize control, especially when they have a comfortable lead.
This pattern varied throughout the game but remained an interesting observation. I’ve summarized my findings below and would love to hear your thoughts if you want to comment.
What struck me most was the unexpected confirmation of a theory I almost anticipated but didn’t fully believe. Even professional players, who appear cool and composed, vary their shots significantly under pressure, suggesting that beneath their calm exterior, they experience a significant amount of internal turmoil.
It turns out that, just like sports traders, professional tennis players also grapple with a fear of loss.
