Why Tipsters Cannot Be Trusted!
As a seasoned bettor, I’ve encountered my fair share of professional punters, pundits, and tipsters, and I must say, I don’t have much love for them. Why? Because the majority of them are often wrong, ill-informed, and miss the most crucial piece of information needed to succeed in sports betting. If you want to learn more about this vital piece of information and how it can impact your betting strategies, keep reading.
The Betting Landscape: Overwhelmed with Advice
In today’s sports betting landscape, it feels like I’m drowning in advice. Whether it’s football, horse racing, or even political events, tipsters are everywhere.
I see pundits analysing team performances and making predictions, but there’s one critical element they consistently overlook: value. This is something I utilise constantly in my betting strategies, and it’s essential for long-term profit.
No tipster's talk about this
Every time I look at a tipster’s advice, I notice a significant piece of information missing—probability. When you know this you realise that the tipping industry has strayed far from where it should be.
Tipsters often provide their opinions on who will win without grounding those opinions in a solid probability framework. This is a major flaw because betting isn’t just about who’s likely to win; it’s about understanding the odds and finding value in those odds.
Seeking Certainty in a World of Possibility
When I tune into a sports event, I often hear people asking for definitive answers—who’s going to win?
The reality is that there are no guarantees in betting. Every event is a spectrum of possibilities, and yet, people crave black-and-white answers. The truth is that the best you can do is assess probabilities and make informed decisions based on those assessments.
There is no yes and no when it comes to sports, just probable outcomes.
The Importance of Value
One of the best pieces of advice I gave was during an event in Dublin when someone asked me about securing the best prices for bets. My response was simple: always seek the best price.
It doesn’t matter how much research I’ve done; if I don’t secure the best price, I won’t make money. The average punter often places bets based on gut feelings rather than informed assessments of value.
The Role of Odds
When betting, I focus heavily on the odds being offered. For instance, if a team at the top of the league is playing a team at the bottom, the instinct might be to back the favourite.
However, I always ask myself if the odds truly reflect the likelihood of that outcome. I consider how many times that match-up would likely end in a win for the favourite if played a hundred times. This analysis is crucial to my decision-making process.
Understanding Natural Variability
The betting market has natural variability, both in terms of odds and event outcomes. I’m always on the lookout for opportunities where the perceived value (the market’s odds) significantly diverges from my calculated probability.
This is where I see my opportunity to profit. If I identify an event that I believe has a 50% chance of winning but the market suggests it’s only a 20% chance, I’ve found a significant margin to exploit.
You may wonder if these opportunties can occur, but they do. Take a look chart on the price of a favourite in a horse race. The market couldn’t couldn
The Pitfalls of Binary Thinking
Many people struggle with the concept of probability because our brains are wired for binary outcomes—will it eat me or not?
This binary thinking is a hurdle in understanding the complexities of sports betting. I’ve come to appreciate that the grey areas—the probabilities—are what lead to profitability.
Most people don’t understand probabilities so tipsters prey on that. Tell people to do something specifically is appealing, so that’s why they do it.
What tipsters actually trying to do
Sports betting tipsters often market themselves as experts, but few are and most have no long term track record. Many are driven by what’s called “bet stimulus.”
This tactic focuses not on providing winning tips, but on encouraging more bets to drive business for bookmakers. Tipsters are often rewarded through commissions or payments from bookmakers, incentivising them to push more betting activity rather than delivering genuine, well-researched advice.
This setup misleads punters, creating an illusion of value while the real goal is to increase betting volume. It’s a tactic that benefits both tipsters and bookmakers, but often leaves bettors at a loss, highlighting the need for caution when following these so-called experts.
Value vs. Price: The Essential Distinction
In my experience, I’ve realised that it’s not enough to back a horse or team just because I think they’ll win.
I need to evaluate the price being offered. If I see odds that imply a less than 50% chance of success for an outcome I believe has a higher chance of occurring, I’ll consider that a good bet. Conversely, if the odds are unfavourable, I simply won’t place the bet.
The Need for Transparency in Predictions
I’d love to see more betting tipsters and pundits provide their predictions with clear percentages attached.
For example, instead of simply stating, “I like Manchester United tonight,” they should specify, “I believe Manchester United has a 75% chance of winning at this price.” This kind of transparency would help punters make informed decisions based on value rather than just opinions.
Of course, it’s not going to happen.
Conclusion: You can't trust tipsters
So, what have I learned from my years in the betting game? Focus on price and therefore value.
The next time I’m tempted to place a bet, I remind myself that I’m under no obligation to do so. I’ll wait for the right price, and when it comes along, I’ll seize the opportunity.
That’s the philosophy that has led me to long-term success, and it can do the same for you. Always remember, the only way to profit consistently is to understand the true probabilities and find odds that represent genuine value.
Something that tipsters seem unable to understand. But of course, the industry doesn’t want you to understand, just place a bet.