How I Made a Million Betting on Horse Racing
I was at an event recently, and, of course, the same sort of questions pops up when mixing with new people. What do you do for a living, or similar. I often duck the question or give an ambiguous answer but tonight I was straightforward in my reply.
“I bet on horse racing for a living”. This is a great conversation killer, which is how I often use it.
But on this occasion the person was interested, questioning exactly what I did and probing many different aspects of my work. I should have known better; they were lining up the ‘killer’ question.
“So, Peter, it sounds interesting. But why don’t you just go for it and make as much money as you can”
“Well, you know what, that’s exactly what I did” I said as turned and headed to the bar for another drink.
“I bet on horse racing for a living”. This is a great conversation killer, which is how I often use it.
But on this occasion the person was interested, questioning exactly what I did and probing many different aspects of my work. I should have known better; they were lining up the ‘killer’ question.
“So, Peter, it sounds interesting. But why don’t you just go for it and make as much money as you can”
“Well, you know what, that’s exactly what I did” I said as turned and headed to the bar for another drink.
Starting out
When I first started betting on horse racing, I didn’t have a clue about the sport. My knowledge was limited to the Grand National and Royal Ascot. I knew other horse races took place but didn’t care much for them or understand what a race was. I wasn’t even aware of Cheltenham.
A maiden was a Disney princess, a seller was somebody who knocked at the door when you were trying to put the kids to bed. The jargon and lingo were way over my head. I figured there were probably many people more knowledgeable than me, so I could have thrown in the towel immediately, but I didn’t.
A maiden was a Disney princess, a seller was somebody who knocked at the door when you were trying to put the kids to bed. The jargon and lingo were way over my head. I figured there were probably many people more knowledgeable than me, so I could have thrown in the towel immediately, but I didn’t.
The Very Beginning
Before we dive into the detail, some relevant background.
The first sport I ever seriously bet on was Football. I knew the sport well; felt I had good knowledge of it and felt I had at least a chance of overcoming the odds.
To cut a very long story short, I was right. From my initial thoughts, I fleshed out some statistics, a clever method of placing bets, and after some experimentation, success.
Bookmaker restrictions limited what I could do, so I drifted off to financial markets before I eventually stumbled across betting exchanges before they were formally launched. So, as soon as they hit the public, I signed up.
Curiously, my first ever bet on an exchange was on Golf, followed by financial markets and then football.
The first sport I ever seriously bet on was Football. I knew the sport well; felt I had good knowledge of it and felt I had at least a chance of overcoming the odds.
To cut a very long story short, I was right. From my initial thoughts, I fleshed out some statistics, a clever method of placing bets, and after some experimentation, success.
Bookmaker restrictions limited what I could do, so I drifted off to financial markets before I eventually stumbled across betting exchanges before they were formally launched. So, as soon as they hit the public, I signed up.
Curiously, my first ever bet on an exchange was on Golf, followed by financial markets and then football.
My first profitable betting strategy
My initial attempt to make money betting on sports was centred around arbitrage. I would back with a bookmaker and lay the bet on the exchange and net a profit between the two. This was easy to do.
Fate dealt a hand, though, as a bookmaker welched on a 125/1 shot and left me with a massive liability on the exchange. Maybe Arbing wasn’t what it cracked up to be, it certainly wasn’t risk free?
But in a lightbulb moment, I thought, what happens if I put two bets, a back and lay bet, into the exchange and wait for them to get matched?
Bingo, it worked. I was giddy with the potential; in theory, I had unlocked unlimited arbing opportunities right before me. I let rip, and Betfair trading was born.
This was the moment when I realised that the potential was massive.
Fate dealt a hand, though, as a bookmaker welched on a 125/1 shot and left me with a massive liability on the exchange. Maybe Arbing wasn’t what it cracked up to be, it certainly wasn’t risk free?
But in a lightbulb moment, I thought, what happens if I put two bets, a back and lay bet, into the exchange and wait for them to get matched?
Bingo, it worked. I was giddy with the potential; in theory, I had unlocked unlimited arbing opportunities right before me. I let rip, and Betfair trading was born.
This was the moment when I realised that the potential was massive.
Leaving a well-paid job to bet for living
Initially, I focused my betting on things I was familiar with: Football, Financial Bets and some Golf.
As my betting volume grew on betting exchanges, I started looking for other sports I could bet on. I couldn’t help but see the enormous volumes of activity on horse racing.
With other sports, you would designate times for those sports. But racing seemed to be every ten minutes or so. I was fascinated.
But I had a big problem; I just had no idea where my edge would be. I wouldn’t bet on something that I didn’t understand. I had to find an approach that would allow me to get involved and not be at the mercy of people who knew a lot more than me.
As my betting volume grew on betting exchanges, I started looking for other sports I could bet on. I couldn’t help but see the enormous volumes of activity on horse racing.
With other sports, you would designate times for those sports. But racing seemed to be every ten minutes or so. I was fascinated.
But I had a big problem; I just had no idea where my edge would be. I wouldn’t bet on something that I didn’t understand. I had to find an approach that would allow me to get involved and not be at the mercy of people who knew a lot more than me.
The Learning Curve
Seeing the opportunity, I got stuck-in, but I’ll be honest: the horse racing industry isn’t very kind to complete newbies.
I could see races run at different courses and distances, but why? Also, some ran from stalls, others jumped over things, and the dedicated racing channels and press were complete gobbledegook.
It was confusing to see fractional odds. I wasn’t very good at Maths at school and fractions, well, the further I could get from those, the better.
Despite this I stumbled into bookmaker, then on course to try and get a better understanding of the sport.
Slowly, I began to get a better understanding of what I was looking at.
I could see races run at different courses and distances, but why? Also, some ran from stalls, others jumped over things, and the dedicated racing channels and press were complete gobbledegook.
It was confusing to see fractional odds. I wasn’t very good at Maths at school and fractions, well, the further I could get from those, the better.
Despite this I stumbled into bookmaker, then on course to try and get a better understanding of the sport.
Slowly, I began to get a better understanding of what I was looking at.
Developing the Betting System
Because I had profited from Arbing in other sports, that’s the first thing I tried on racing. But there was a massive problem; the odds were flying around all over the place.
I soon learnt that this was a characteristic of the market. Unlike other sports, new information is being discounted into the odds all the time, right up to when the race starts. This was problematic.
As I have often said, positive minds find opportunities, and negative ones find problems.
Arbing is all about getting two bets matched, but it was proving tricky on racing as the odds moved so quickly. But that presented the actual opportunity.
Sometimes inverting a problem can provide a solution.
I soon learnt that this was a characteristic of the market. Unlike other sports, new information is being discounted into the odds all the time, right up to when the race starts. This was problematic.
As I have often said, positive minds find opportunities, and negative ones find problems.
Arbing is all about getting two bets matched, but it was proving tricky on racing as the odds moved so quickly. But that presented the actual opportunity.
Sometimes inverting a problem can provide a solution.
The Betting System
Seeing how much the prices moved reminded me of something: trading on the stock market. On the stock market, if you want to profit, you buy low and sell high; on a betting exchange, you can trade in exactly the same what, but you lay low and back high, or vice versa.
I did the same thing I had done on other sports, I offered two prices and waited for them to be filled, or matched as you would say on a betting exchange.
This worked well in some races and not in others, I would often win on a number of races then lose all my gains in one bad race. I had to learn to understand why this was the case. It turned out to be relatively easy. The clue was in the type of race I was trading.
In a competitive handicap race, the market didn’t know who would win the race, so that bound the odds movement into a narrow range. I could trade confidently inside this range as it was unlikely to move beyond it.
But in a race like a maiden or a novice, which featured unraced horses, the market was just driven by emotion and opinion. This made the market trend as people, unsure of the chance of the horse, would ‘follow the money’ extending, and often overextending, the movement of the odds.
From those simple beginnings, I began to build out a range of tactics designed to maximise the odds of a profitable trade.
I did the same thing I had done on other sports, I offered two prices and waited for them to be filled, or matched as you would say on a betting exchange.
This worked well in some races and not in others, I would often win on a number of races then lose all my gains in one bad race. I had to learn to understand why this was the case. It turned out to be relatively easy. The clue was in the type of race I was trading.
In a competitive handicap race, the market didn’t know who would win the race, so that bound the odds movement into a narrow range. I could trade confidently inside this range as it was unlikely to move beyond it.
But in a race like a maiden or a novice, which featured unraced horses, the market was just driven by emotion and opinion. This made the market trend as people, unsure of the chance of the horse, would ‘follow the money’ extending, and often overextending, the movement of the odds.
From those simple beginnings, I began to build out a range of tactics designed to maximise the odds of a profitable trade.
Getting to a higher level
Soon, I started to think deeply about how to get to the next level.
I’ll never forget the thrill of my first £100 day, then my first £100 trade. Then it was a £1000 day, then a £1000 trade.
At this point, I knew I had a shot at something spectacular. Could I get the magic million in profit? That would be something special and one in the eye for all the sceptics.
I’ll never forget the thrill of my first £100 day, then my first £100 trade. Then it was a £1000 day, then a £1000 trade.
At this point, I knew I had a shot at something spectacular. Could I get the magic million in profit? That would be something special and one in the eye for all the sceptics.
Making a million betting on horse racing
On an individual basis my profits per trade would reflect the market conditions. A really good market would net me a tidy profit, but a poor one a poor profit. But it would all average out to a certain amount per market overall.
You make £50, lose £30, win £5, break even, make £10, lose £5 and so on…
I knew my average profit per trade, so it was just a numbers game.
Now I had the bit between my teeth; it was all about trading as many markets as possible.
Horse racing would make up the bulk of this as so many markets were available. During the peak season, you could get hundreds of races a week, far fewer during the winter, but overall, it was quite easy to trade 10-15,000 races a year.
Multiply 10,000 by any positive number, and you get to bigger numbers. So that’s what I did.
I breached the magic number by trading 40,000 markets—an average of £25 per market. By focusing on trading well, rather than winning a certain amount I’d reached a really special goal.
All through my journey I’d carefully documented my progress, archiving bet data, my thoughts and theories on the way to my goal. I wanted to prove it was a carefully thought out process. Not a fluke or open to question.
When I crossed that barrier, I wrote to Betfair to get confirmation and they sent me a summary of my achievement.
You make £50, lose £30, win £5, break even, make £10, lose £5 and so on…
I knew my average profit per trade, so it was just a numbers game.
Now I had the bit between my teeth; it was all about trading as many markets as possible.
Horse racing would make up the bulk of this as so many markets were available. During the peak season, you could get hundreds of races a week, far fewer during the winter, but overall, it was quite easy to trade 10-15,000 races a year.
Multiply 10,000 by any positive number, and you get to bigger numbers. So that’s what I did.
I breached the magic number by trading 40,000 markets—an average of £25 per market. By focusing on trading well, rather than winning a certain amount I’d reached a really special goal.
All through my journey I’d carefully documented my progress, archiving bet data, my thoughts and theories on the way to my goal. I wanted to prove it was a carefully thought out process. Not a fluke or open to question.
When I crossed that barrier, I wrote to Betfair to get confirmation and they sent me a summary of my achievement.
It was a big moment for me, having worked hard to reach that point. I was underwhelmed by the reaction. I expected a giant fanfare, a big party and phone call from the Betfair CEO and the Racing press to come flocking to my door.
I could see the headlines, ‘Horse racing punter comes up with million-pound racing system’
But it didn’t happen, breaching £1m was actually the same as if I’d never actually done it, any other week, so I was left with this sort of ‘OK, what next?’ feeling. I hadn’t thought about ‘what next’
So I just ploughed on, improving, refining and heading for the next objective. Whatever that was?
I could see the headlines, ‘Horse racing punter comes up with million-pound racing system’
But it didn’t happen, breaching £1m was actually the same as if I’d never actually done it, any other week, so I was left with this sort of ‘OK, what next?’ feeling. I hadn’t thought about ‘what next’
So I just ploughed on, improving, refining and heading for the next objective. Whatever that was?
Anything is possible if you put your mind to it
Some of you may feel one million is not possible, hopefully I’ve proved that it is. I’ve done it. Some of you may point out that is no longer possible. I’ll acknowledge that markets change, but once again positive minds find opportunities.
The interesting thing about this story is that this was at the start of my career. From there I’ve just kept on going. Last year I traded nearly the same number of markets in one year that it took me to get to that first million.
Part of the reason for this is that I now bet and trade automatically as well as manually. At the start of my career, I would just do one market at a time manually.
Now I can do multiple markets, manually and automatically, simultaneously 24 hours a day 7 days a week.
You may be interested to know that one of the reasons I can still do it is human nature. Just as I mentioned at the start, it doesn’t matter how successful you become. There is still an undercurrent of scepticism when it comes to betting.
But ironically, that’s what I would call one of my greatest edges.
The interesting thing about this story is that this was at the start of my career. From there I’ve just kept on going. Last year I traded nearly the same number of markets in one year that it took me to get to that first million.
Part of the reason for this is that I now bet and trade automatically as well as manually. At the start of my career, I would just do one market at a time manually.
Now I can do multiple markets, manually and automatically, simultaneously 24 hours a day 7 days a week.
You may be interested to know that one of the reasons I can still do it is human nature. Just as I mentioned at the start, it doesn’t matter how successful you become. There is still an undercurrent of scepticism when it comes to betting.
But ironically, that’s what I would call one of my greatest edges.
What you need to know if you want to try
Of course, I’m not saying if you do the same, you could also earn a million. But, well, you could. I and others have trodden this path.
But as many will tell you, it’s not that easy. Doing what I do, Betfair trading, is often counter intuitive and coping with the various demands, the learning curve and commitment needed to trade successfully is the hard bit. Dealing with losses, unexpected events, the unsociable hours, the stigma of betting the scepticism and so on.
When I started, there was no help, nobody to look up to, no software. Now you also face the issue of there being too much, lots of it is wrong or confusing and of course, purveyors of wisdom, who tend to be very convincing, often don’t feel it’s important to actually have even taken the time and effort to actually do it. The don’t care, they just want your money.
Fundamental though, the concept is sound and more importantly, you could actually do it if you followed the same path as me. All my strategies didn’t require great in-depth knowledge of a sport, a PhD or some unusual angle or edge, like fast pictures or exploiting some loophole. It’s just good, well-practiced, well executed trading.
I’ve been lucky enough to surround myself with likeminded people and customers who share the same objectives, passion and commitment and that’s made it a real pleasure. It’s easily the best job I’ve had and as they say work is so fun it doesn’t feel like a job.
It’s been a pleasure and something I’ve enjoyed tremendously and still enjoyed considerably.
The only mistake I’ve made is I never set a moment at which I would stop. So I often feel I’ve gone on for too long from a personal perspective. I should really enjoy the fruits of my labour, rather than just pushing it that little bit more. Nobody seems to care anyway.
But once I had the bit between my teeth I really want to go for it in a spectacular way, something that may never be repeated.
But I hope that’s given you an overview of my journey and specifically how I reached a profit of £1m from a starting point of no knowledge of racing. I also hope that it’s given you some inspiration that, while not guaranteed of course, you can achieve something too.
But as many will tell you, it’s not that easy. Doing what I do, Betfair trading, is often counter intuitive and coping with the various demands, the learning curve and commitment needed to trade successfully is the hard bit. Dealing with losses, unexpected events, the unsociable hours, the stigma of betting the scepticism and so on.
When I started, there was no help, nobody to look up to, no software. Now you also face the issue of there being too much, lots of it is wrong or confusing and of course, purveyors of wisdom, who tend to be very convincing, often don’t feel it’s important to actually have even taken the time and effort to actually do it. The don’t care, they just want your money.
Fundamental though, the concept is sound and more importantly, you could actually do it if you followed the same path as me. All my strategies didn’t require great in-depth knowledge of a sport, a PhD or some unusual angle or edge, like fast pictures or exploiting some loophole. It’s just good, well-practiced, well executed trading.
I’ve been lucky enough to surround myself with likeminded people and customers who share the same objectives, passion and commitment and that’s made it a real pleasure. It’s easily the best job I’ve had and as they say work is so fun it doesn’t feel like a job.
It’s been a pleasure and something I’ve enjoyed tremendously and still enjoyed considerably.
The only mistake I’ve made is I never set a moment at which I would stop. So I often feel I’ve gone on for too long from a personal perspective. I should really enjoy the fruits of my labour, rather than just pushing it that little bit more. Nobody seems to care anyway.
But once I had the bit between my teeth I really want to go for it in a spectacular way, something that may never be repeated.
But I hope that’s given you an overview of my journey and specifically how I reached a profit of £1m from a starting point of no knowledge of racing. I also hope that it’s given you some inspiration that, while not guaranteed of course, you can achieve something too.